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Title: 球員選秀順位與未來表現之關聯性分析:以NBA為例
Draft Order and Players' Future Performance: Evidence from the National Basketball Association
Authors: 謝書昀
Shie, Shu-Yun
Contributors: 陳鎮洲
Chen, Jenn-Jou
Shie, Shu-Yun
Keywords: NBA選秀
NBA draft
Player performance
Sports economics
Date: 2021
Issue Date: 2021-07-01 20:22:58 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本研究採用美國籃球聯盟西元 2006 年至 2017 年順利通過兩輪選秀之新秀球員數據資料,以迴歸不連續法,估計球員選秀順位與其未來表現關聯性。實證結果顯示,在前三年的職業生涯中,高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員,並未擁有較佳表現。在職業生涯第二年,高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員, 平均每場比賽獲得較多上場時間;然而,此結果並不穩定。去除了同一賽季中,曾有轉換過球隊的球員後,仍獲得類似結果。因此,推斷此不穩定結果現象可能為樣本數不足原因所致。
The goal of this paper is to examine the correlation between draft order and players’ subsequent performance using draftees’ statistics between 2006 and 2017 from the National Basketball Association (NBA). A regression discontinuity design is applied to capture the effect of draft order. The results show that higher-drafted players are not more productive than lower-drafted players throughout the first three years of their career. Although higher-drafted players have more playing time per game than lower-drafted players in their second year, the results are unstable. In a subgroup analysis, I find similar results. A possible reason for the unexpected results may lie in the inadequacy of the sample size.
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Description: 碩士
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Data Type: thesis
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