球員選秀順位與未來表現之關聯性分析：以NBA為例

Abstract

本研究採用美國籃球聯盟西元 2006 年至 2017 年順利通過兩輪選秀之新秀球員數據資料，以迴歸不連續法，估計球員選秀順位與其未來表現關聯性。實證結果顯示，在前三年的職業生涯中，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員，並未擁有較佳表現。在職業生涯第二年，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員， 平均每場比賽獲得較多上場時間;然而，此結果並不穩定。去除了同一賽季中，曾有轉換過球隊的球員後，仍獲得類似結果。因此，推斷此不穩定結果現象可能為樣本數不足原因所致。

The goal of this paper is to examine the correlation between draft order and players’ subsequent performance using draftees’ statistics between 2006 and 2017 from the National Basketball Association (NBA). A regression discontinuity design is applied to capture the effect of draft order. The results show that higher-drafted players are not more productive than lower-drafted players throughout the first three years of their career. Although higher-drafted players have more playing time per game than lower-drafted players in their second year, the results are unstable. In a subgroup analysis, I find similar results. A possible reason for the unexpected results may lie in the inadequacy of the sample size.