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Title: 金融發展與地下經濟的門檻關係-台灣的實證研究
The threshold relationship between financial development and shadow economy: Evidence from Taiwan
Authors: 蕭雅丞
Hsiao, Ya-Cheng
Contributors: 洪福聲
Hung, Fu-Sheng
Hsiao, Ya-Cheng
Keywords: 地下經濟
Shadow economy
financial development
threshold model
Date: 2021
Issue Date: 2021-07-01 20:30:05 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 現有文獻多以線性模型探討金融發展與地下經濟間的關係,而金融發展程度常以銀行發展以及股市發展作為衡量,為補足現有文獻之缺,本文利用門檻迴歸模型探討金融發展與地下經濟間是否存在非線性關係。根據本文的實證結果,銀行發展與地下經濟間存在門檻關係,於低銀行發展程度區間,即全體金融機構對民間企業放款總值對GDP的比值小於2.773時,銀行發展程度的提升會顯著增加地下經濟的規模,然而當銀行發展程度較高時,銀行發展對地下經濟的正向影響縮小且不顯著,代表提升銀行發展程度可以抑制地下經濟的成長;股市發展與地下經濟間則不存在非線性關係,但在線性迴歸模型中,股市發展的提升將顯著降低地下經濟的規模。綜合上列所述,促進台灣的金融發展的確有助於降低台灣地下經濟的規模,減少地下經濟所帶來的負面影響。根據樣本內預測能力的比較結果,本文也發現非線性模型確實優於線性模型,且非線性模型的結論不因估計地下經濟規模的方法不同而有所差異。
Most of pre-existing studies examine the relationship between financial development and the shadow economy by linear models, and financial development is usually proxied by banking development and stock market development. This paper adopts a non-linear threshold model to identify whether there is a non-linear relationship between financial development and the scale of shadow economy. The result shows that there is a non-linear relationship between banking development and the scale of shadow economy. At lower levels of banking development, that is, the ratio between bank credit to the private sector over GDP is less than 2.773, banking development has a significantly positive impact on the scale of the shadow economy. In contrast, the positive impact on the scale of the shadow economy decreases, and becomes insignificant at higher levels of banking development. On the other hand, the effect of stock market development on the scale of the shadow economy is linearly negative. As stated above, improving financial development in Taiwan does reduce the scale of shadow economy. In addition, the result of in-sample fits shows that the non-linear model outperforms the linear model, and the threshold relationship between banking development and the scale of the shadow economy is robust with respect to different estimation methods of the shadow economy.
Reference: 李怡庭與湯茹茵(2014),「臺灣地下經濟的規模估計與分析」,《台灣地下經濟之成因研究成果報告》,76-89,台北:Visa國際信用卡組織。
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