現實主義的探究與評估：拜登政局對中華人民共和國與中華民國的潛在外交政策

Abstract

As the Biden administration begins its tenure, and an opportunity for a revision or continuation of the Trump administration’s foreign policy occurs, what are the range of policy options that the administration should consider towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC)? In addition to this, what policies are most in the interests of the administration? This thesis explores both of these questions by crafting a framework of policies towards the PRC and ROC characterized underneath a “realist spectrum” of orientations, ranging from Offensive to Defensive Realism. In order to craft this framework of policies labeled under this realist spectrum, this thesis examines the views of major academics, policymakers, and organizations in order to craft certain generalities of policy baskets used to then label policies consequently examined.\r\nFrom there, this thesis uses these understandings to characterize a retrospective analysis of the PRC and ROC policies of the first Obama term, Trump administration, and anticipated policies of the Biden administration. In differentiating and categorizing policies, this paper uses the DIME methodology (Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic) to distinguish and categorize levers of state power used within administrations in actualizing PRC and ROC policies. This paper concludes its analysis by analyzing the relative effectiveness of the Trump and Obama administration’s PRC and ROC policies to recommend a set of policies most useful to the Biden administration today. In addition, it compares the major differences and implications of those policies that it recommends to the Biden administration, and those policies that it anticipates the Biden administration to actualize.