以政策擴散理論分析全球再生能源擴散

Abstract

本研究採用政策擴散理論的架構探討影響國家層級全球再生能源擴散的因素。本研究採用的政策擴散理論架構包含四個擴散途徑：學習、競爭、強制及公民壓力。同時也考慮三個內部因素: 經濟狀況、碳排濃度及政治穩定度。資料涵蓋168個國家並橫跨2009到2016年，共有八年的年度資料。研究分析可分為二大部份。第一部份是使用八年的追蹤資料與最小平方虛擬變數模型來檢視長期下變數間的關係。第二部份則是運用地理加權迴歸模型揭開變數的區域係數在空間分佈的情況。研究結果指出學習途徑、競爭途徑、強制途徑及經濟狀況與全球再生能源的擴散呈正向關係，碳排濃度則呈負向關係，公民壓力途徑與政治穩定度的結果則不顯著。此外，根據地理迴歸模型的結果，所有變數的區域係數皆有空間群聚的現象。因而能夠推論政策擴散途徑與內部因素的強度在空間分佈有區域間的差異。

This study used a theoretical framework of policy diffusion to explore the influential factors to global renewable energy diffusion at the country level. The policy diffusion framework in this research consisted of four diffusion approaches: learning, competition, coercion, and citizen pressure. Meanwhile, some internal factors were considered, including economic status, carbon intensity, and political stability. The data covered 168 countries within a period of eight years (2009 to 2016). The analysis could be summarized into two segments. Firstly, the eight-year panel data was analyzed using Least Squares Dummy Variable Model (LSDV) for examining the correlations in the long term. The second analysis used Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to reveal the spatial distribution of local coefficients of each variable. The findings indicated that the learning approach, the competition approach, and the coercion approach positively correlated with global renewable energy diffusion, but not for the citizen pressure approach. Besides, economic status was positively correlated, and carbon intensity was negatively associated with national renewable energy adoption. In GWR analysis, the local coefficients of each variable were spatially clustered among regions. Therefore, it could be inferred that the spatial disparity of the strength of policy diffusion approaches and internal factors existed.