美國川普政府對東南亞的政軍態勢

Abstract

本文聚焦在美國川普政府 2017 年 1 月至 2021 年 1 月對東南亞的政治 與軍事態勢。川普及歐巴馬對東南亞的政策布局相差不大，不過，從 2017 年 12 月的《美國國家安全戰略》及其後的國防部、國務院印太區域報告， 以及美國對南海主權爭端的政策作為看來，川普政府在東南亞的政策調門 更強了。本文描繪和分析川普政府對東南亞的政治及軍事政策產出，大致 歸類為以東協為主的領袖峰會、高層官員訪問及軍事安全合作等三部分， 指出美國在領袖峰會的表現容易讓東南亞國家對美國產生懷疑，在高官訪 問方面次數頻繁但效果難判，在軍事安全合作方面則持續密切。前述這些 影響不僅讓美國和東南亞的關係變得複雜，而且似未能達成美國想要在東 南亞普遍壓制中國大陸影響力的戰略目的。

This essay concentrates on the political and military posture of the United States (US) Donald J. Trump administration toward Southeast Asia, January 2017 and January 2021. The configurations of Trump`s and Barack H. Obama`s Southeast Asia policies differed slightly. Nonetheless, judging from the National Security Strategy of the United States, released in December 2017, and the ensuing reports from the Department of Defense and Department of State, as well as from the US policy toward the sovereignty dispute over the South China Sea, the tone of the Trump administration about its Southeast Asia policy became tougher than that in the Obama presidency. This essay illustrates and analyzes the political and military policy outputs of the Trump administration toward Southeast Asia, categorizing them into three dimensions: ASEAN-based summits, visits of high-level officials, and military and security cooperation. The performance of the US in the summits resulted in doubt about the US among Southeast Asian countries; the US high-level official visits were frequent but their outcomes were uncertain; and the military and security cooperation between the US and Southeast Asia remained close. These complicated US-Southeast Asia relations, and them did not seem to attain the strategic goal of the US that the mainland China`s influence on Southeast Asia should be subdued generally.