社群信心聲量與房市之關聯性

Abstract

過去在研究影響不動產價格的因素中，除了常用的基本面因素以外，投資人的情緒也會影響房價的波動，例如隨著市場對於景氣和房市樂觀，可能會導致屋主惜售，進一步推升房市價格。而衡量市場投資人的指標有很多，包括消費者信心指數、Google搜索量指數、文字探勘技術等等。而本篇研究即是將兩種常見的方法進行結合和比較，即消費者信心指數和文字探勘。首先透過社群大數據平台Opview關鍵字設定功能建構情緒字典，以消費者信心指數的建構方式為參考依據，重新建構衡量消費者情緒的指標，稱之為社群信心聲量，並藉這個機會來比較透過社群所建構之指標，和傳統透過問卷調查方式所建立的消費者信心指標，有何異同。聲量指的是網路上的貼文和回文數，所以透過蒐集這些網路上的聲量，我們可以獲得比消費者信心指數更即時且大樣本的數據。本研究採集了2012年1月至2020年12月的資料，針對台北地區房屋的房價、成交量、流動天數、議價空間進行分析，並比較了兩種指標在不同應變數下的解釋力，而本篇研究發現，在房價和成交量的部分，社群聲量指標確實有更好的顯著水準，而在議價空間則是消費者信心指數表現較好，兩個指標各有所長，也就是說，未來在分析市場的有限情緒時，除了消費者信心指數，或許也可以把社群信心聲量納入考量，是不錯的研究工具。

In the past, there are many factors affecting real estate prices, in addition to the fundamental factors, investor sentiment will also affect the fluctuation of house prices. For example, as the market is optimistic about the boom and the housing market, it may cause homeowners to be reluctant to sell and further push up the housing market price. Therefore, there are many indicators to measure market investors, including consumer confidence index, Google search volume index, text mining technology and so on.\nThis study combines and compares the two methods. The keyword setting function of the social big data platform Opview is used to construct a sentiment dictionary, which is based on the consumer confidence index. The construction method is reconstructing an indicator to measure consumer sentiment, which is called the volume of community, and comparing whether the indicators constructed through the community can beat the traditional consumer confidence index. The volume of voice is the number of posts and palindromes on the Internet, so by collecting the volume of voice on these networks, we can obtain more real-time and larger sample data than the consumer confidence index. This research collects data from January 2012 to December 2020, and analyzes the housing prices, transaction volume, flow days, and bargaining space of the Taipei area. This research found that in the part of housing prices and transaction volume, the community volume index is indeed better than the consumer confidence index, and the consumer confidence index performs better in the bargaining space. In the future, when analyzing the limited sentiment of the market, in addition to the consumer confidence index, you can take internet community into account, it is possible that better predictive power can be obtained.