推估臺灣儲蓄及消費：以財稅行政資料為例

Abstract

本文使用財政部財政資料中心（Fiscal Information Agency, FIA）2009年到2017年的行政資料推估臺灣儲蓄及消費情形。我們使用所得恆等式之關係（所得=消費+儲蓄）來推估消費，此方法需要先行推估出儲蓄和所得資料。首先，本文透過財產登錄資料建立有關不動產、股票及銀行存款的財富資料。再來，透過營業稅籍主檔、扣繳單位檔以及其他補充資料建立退休金資產。不動產及股票使用價格法推估其儲蓄，銀行存款和退休金資產每年的流量即為其儲蓄。除了十大類所得，本研究還加入不動產設算租金所得、不動產交易所得以及退休金所得，使所得資料更加完整。最終結果分為三個部分：首先，個人一年儲蓄金額落在8萬至23萬之間；其次，個人一年消費金額落在15萬至34萬之間；最後，家戶一年消費金額落在33萬至60萬之間。

This article uses the Administrative Data from the Financial Information Center (FIA) of the Ministry of Finance from 2009 to 2017 to estimate saving and consumption in Taiwan. We follow the simple accounting relation of the budget constraint where income must be either consumed or saved, so we need to estimate income and saving in advance. First, this article uses the Administrative Data to create individual wealth information about land, houses, stocks, and bank deposits. Second, we also use the Administrative Data and additional resources to create the retirement assets. Then, we use the price approach to impute the wealth flow from the change in land, houses, and stocks. As for bank deposits and retirement assets, we can simply use changes in the balance value to construct the wealth flow. We further improve individual income by refining the computation of income from lease、income from real estate transactions and income from retirement. According to our calculation, individual annual saving is between 80,000 and 230,000, individual annual consumption is between 150,000 and 340,000, and household annual consumption is between 330,000 and 600,000.