交通建設施工階段對房價的影響 -以淡江大橋為例

Abstract

在房價不斷高漲的雙北地區，許多年輕人或受薪階層的人民無力負擔這樣的高房價，因此新北市誕生了三個低房價的重劃區，吸引雙北都會區的上班族移居，其中之一就是位於淡水的淡海新市鎮，而一個重劃區是否成功的主因在於聯外交通建設的規劃，因此在2007年淡江大橋計劃案被重新啟動且於2010年通過可行性報告，後於2014年正式動工，因此本文以特徵價格模型作為分析基礎，使用雙重差分法探討淡江大橋施工期間實驗組相比控制組房價的變化。\n本研究之資料來源為「內政部的不動產成交案件實際資訊資料供應系統」所提供之「房地產實價登錄資料」，再加入「內政部台灣通用電子地圖建置圖標」所提供的「地標資料」，將兩個資料彙總整理而成本文之研究資料。後在特徵價格模型中加入雙重差分法進行分析，以淡江大橋的兩端-淡水區與八里區作為實驗組，而以鄰近地區-三芝區、五股區及林口區作為本文之控制組，分別以「淡江大橋三標工程階段之政策效果」及「自開工典禮兩個月前起至資料末端之逐月政策效果」分析房價變化。逐月分析之實證結果發現，在施工期間，實驗組相比控制組對房價無顯著影響；亦可從三標工程階段之實證結果發現，加入施工範圍鄰近住宅區之第二標工程案後，對淡水區及八里區與橋距離三公里內之資料相比控制組，呈現顯著負向影響；而淡海新市鎮在施工期間相比控制組雖房價為顯著正向影響，但有向下的趨勢。

In the Greater Taipei Area, where house prices are soaring, many Salaryman cannot afford. Therefore, New Taipei City has created three Redevelopment Zones with low house prices to attract office workers from the Greater Taipei Area. One of them is the Danhai New Town in Tamsui. The success of a Redevelopment Zone is mainly due to the planning of the external transportation infrastructure, therefore, in 2007, the Danjiang Bridge Project was restarted, and passed the feasibility report in 2010, after, the construction kicked off in 2014. This article will analyze Danjiang Bridge impacts on property price during the construction phase by added Differences-in-Differences Method to Hedonic Price Method.\nThe data used in this research is the "Registering the Actual Selling Price of Real Estate" provided by the "Ministry of the Interior", and the "Landmark Data" also provided by the "Ministry of the Interior", and summarized two data. Both ends of the Danjiang Bridge, Tamsui and Bali were used as the experiment group, and the neighboring areas, Sanzhi, Wugu and Linkou were used as the control group in this article. Analyze the changes of house prices with the policy effects "during the construction phase of Danjiang Bridge" and "month by month".\nThe empirical results of the monthly policy effect found that during the construction period, the experiment group had no significant effect on house prices compared to the control group. It can also be found from the empirical results of the three-stage construction phases that has a significant negative impact in Danshui and Bali within three kilometers of the bridge, because in the second stage the construction area is adjacent to the residential area. Compared with the control group, the housing price of Danhai New Town has a significant positive impact, but it has a downward trend.