Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136623
題名: 消費性貸款對國民儲蓄率之影響— 台灣的實證分析
The Effect of Consumption Loans on the National Saving Rate– An Empirical Study of Taiwan
作者: 林玟妤
Lin, Wen-Yu
貢獻者: 洪福聲
Hung, Fu-Sheng
林玟妤
Lin, Wen-Yu
關鍵詞: 國民儲蓄率
消費性貸款
最小平方法
The National Saving Rate
Consumption Loans
Least Squares Estimation
日期: 2021
上傳時間: 4-八月-2021
摘要: 國內資本形成有賴於儲蓄的累積,儲蓄可以說是國家經濟成長的有利基石,但整體而言,儲蓄率對國家的影響卻有多個層面。一方面較高的儲蓄率有利於資本累積與經濟成長;另一方面,過高的儲蓄率意味著消費與投資動能不足,可能使經濟產生停滯而有不利的結果。基於儲蓄率對整體國家的深遠影響,探討影響儲蓄率的因素一直是一個很重要的研究議題。過去文獻大多探討社會褔利制度或社會變遷如人口老化議題與家庭結構變化對儲蓄率的影響,抑或總體經濟因素與儲蓄率之間的關聯,忽略了金融體系對儲蓄率可能的影響。隨著我國金融發展的改革與開放以及民眾消費觀念與習慣的改變,金融機構扮演的角色逐漸重要。\n當人們所得大於消費時,剩餘的部分形成儲蓄進入金融體系,然而所得不足的人也有消費需求,過去金融機構並未重視消費性貸款的業務,又在民間借貸存在訊息不對稱的情況下,消費性的融資活動幾乎無法進行,使真正想要借貸的人借不到錢而無法滿足消費;1990年代中期以來,我國金融市場面臨開放與轉型,消費性貸款開始蓬勃發展,民眾得以從金融機構中取得消費所需資金。過去受限於融資不易而無法充分滿足消費,如今有了消費性貸款的融資管道,民眾融資相對於過去容易許多,然而消費性借貸是否受到限制?假設消費性借貸不受限制,則民眾不須強迫儲蓄,消費性貸款將無法影響儲蓄率,若消費性借貸受有限制,消費性貸款將會如何影響國民儲蓄率?本研究主要目的在運用台灣的資料,探究我國消費性貸款對國民儲蓄率之影響。\n實證結果顯示,消費性貸款率對國民儲蓄率存在顯著的負相關,表示民眾的消費性借貸是受到限制的,而消費性貸款的發展會影響整體儲蓄率下滑。人們受到的借貸限制越少,取得消費所需的資金就越容易,消費比較不受侷限,容易增加消費而減少儲蓄,使國家整體的儲蓄率降低。
The formation of domestic capital depends on the accumulation of savings. Savings can be said to be a favorable cornerstone of the country’s economic growth. Overall, the impact of the saving rate on the country has multiple levels. On the one hand, a high saving rate is conducive to capital accumulation and economic growth; On the other hand, an excessively high saving rate means that consumption and investment momentum is insufficient, which may cause the economy to stagnate and have unfavorable results. Based on the far-reaching impact of the saving rate on the country as a whole, exploring the factors that affect the saving rate has always been a very important research topic. Most of the literature in the past discussed the impact of social welfare systems or social changes such as population aging issues and changes in household structure on the saving rate, or the relationship between general economic factors and the saving rate,which ignoring the possible impact of the financial system on the saving rate. With the reform and opening up of financial development and the changes in people’s consumption habits, the role of financial institutions has become increasingly important.\nWhen people’s income exceeds consumption, the remaining part forms savings into the financial system. However, people with insufficient income also have consumer demand. In the past, financial institutions did not focus on the business of consumption loans, and in the case of information asymmetry in private lending, the consumer financing activities are almost impossible to carry out, so that those who really want to borrow cannot borrow money and cannot meet consumption; Since the mid-1990s, Taiwan’s financial market has been opening up and undergoing transformation, consumption loans have developed rapidly and vigorously, and people have been able to obtain funds from financial institutions. In the past, limited by the difficulty of financing, it was unable to fully satisfy consumption. Nowadays, with the financing channels of consumption loans, people`s financing is much easier than in the past. However, are consumption loans restricted? Assuming that there is non-binding on the amount of borrowing from financial institutions, people do not have the intention to save, and consumption loans may not be able to affect the saving rate. If there is binding on the amount of borrowing, how will it affect the national saving rate?\nThe empirical results show that there is a significant negative correlation between the rate of consumption loans and the national saving rate, indicating that there is binding on the amount of borrowing, and the development of consumption loans will indeed affect the saving rate decline. The fewer borrowing restrictions people are subject to, the easier it is to obtain the funds needed for consumption, and it is easier to increase consumption and reduce savings, making the saving rate of the country lower.
參考文獻: 中文文獻:\n王春源(2010)。台灣的失業率與台灣的總體實質變數之變動關係的研究。南亞學報,第30期,279-297。\n王正(2011)。經濟發展與社會福利:互斥?互補?脫困!。台北:中華救助總會。\n行政院經濟建設委員會(2013)。台灣經濟發展歷程與策略。台北:行政院經濟建設委員會。\n周濟(1997)。世界主要國家儲蓄策略之比較與提升我國儲蓄率問題之探討。台北:財團法人中華經濟研究院。\n林律均(2018)。我國人口少子化、高齡化、勞保基金運用餘額與儲蓄率間關係之研究。淡江大學企業管理學系碩士在職專班學位論文,未出版,台北。\n吳泉源(1993)。金融自由化的迷思:一個經濟社會學的考察。台灣社會研究季刊,第15期,1-37。\n吳仁雍(2017)。台灣人口老化對儲蓄的影響。國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程學位論文,未出版,台北。\n邱莉婷(2011)。我國金融服務業發展之回顧與展望。經濟研究年刊,第11期,171-197。\n徐偉閔(2010)。台灣儲蓄率之總體計量研究。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,台北。\n孫震(1982)。揭開台灣高儲蓄的謎底—兼談建立富而好禮的社會。天下雜誌,第9期。\n張佳寧(2016)。少子化、年金制度與其他總體經濟變數對儲蓄率的影響—以台灣為例。淡江大學產業經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,台北。\n張詠湄(2009)。家戶儲蓄、住宅租擁選擇與貸款選擇。國立暨南國際大學經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,南投。 \n郭奇芬(2006)。台灣消費者貸款與總體經濟活動關係的探討。世新大學經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,台北。\n郭筱君(2014)。企業儲蓄與景氣循環:台灣實證研究1962-2012。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,台北。\n連慧玲(2019)。簽帳行為與台灣家計儲蓄之實證研究。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,台北。\n陳美菊(2009)。全球金融危機之成因、影響及因應。經濟研究年刊,第9期,261-296。\n陳建良(2007)。1980年至2000年台灣擁屋家戶儲蓄行為之變遷:分量迴歸分析的新發現。住宅學報,16(1),57-78。\n陳建良、張郁鶴(2000)。住宅租擁、世代組成與家計儲蓄間關係之探討─以台灣家計收支調查為對象的分析。住宅學報,9(2),99-124。\n陳政偉(2017)。台灣人20年來賺得多花得多 儲蓄率下降,2021年3月20日,取自:https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201708190079.aspx。\n黃景泰(2013)。金融人員消費者貸款必修必修12堂課。台北:財團法人台灣金融研訓院。\n曾麗弘(1999)。台灣儲蓄率定義之檢討。經社法制論叢,第24期,231-248。\n楊金龍(2019)。台灣資金運用的戰略思考。中央銀行季刊,41(3),7-14。\n薛立敏(1998)。台灣地區房價、住宅權屬與儲蓄間關係之探討。台北:財團法人中華經濟研究院。\n潘姿羽(2020)。疫情籠罩 主計總處估今年儲蓄率將創逾30年新高,2021年3月20日,取自:https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202007050062.aspx。\n葉佳惠(2016)。台灣人口結構及所得來源對家庭儲蓄率的影響。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,台北。\n賴姿萍(2009)。影響台灣儲蓄率總體變數的探討。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,台北。\n蔡粧舜(2009)。台灣家戶儲蓄行為之變化:分量迴歸之擬真分析。國立暨南國際大學經濟學研究所碩士學位論文,出版,南投。\n鍾俊文(2004年12月)。人口結構轉變對所得、儲蓄與退休制度影響的探討。勞退新制學術研討會,台北。\n鍾俊文(2005)。人口結構轉變對總體經濟的影響。台灣經濟論衡,3(3),49-77。\n鍾俊文(2007)。人口轉變對總體經濟與金融市場的影響。中央銀行季刊,29(1),61-66。\n謝明瑞(2007)。台灣儲蓄率偏高的省思。國政評論。台北:財團法人國家政策研究基金會。\n謝坤宏(2009)。人口老化現象對儲蓄率的影響分析—以台灣為例。國立東華大學國際經濟研究所碩士學位論文,未出版,花蓮。\n藍青玉、郭炳伸(2006)。借貸限制下的消費與預防性儲蓄行為。經濟論文,34(1),1-39。\n\n英文文獻:\nDiamond, D. W. & P. H. Dybvig (1983). Bank Runs, Insurance, and Liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), 401-419.\nDuesenberry, J. S. & Lloyd Metzler et al. (1948). Income - Consumption Relations and Their Implications. Income, Employment and Public Policy. New York:W.W.Norton & Company, Inc.\nGranger, C. W. & P. Newbold (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.\nHurd, M. (1997). The Economics of Individual Aging. In M.R. Rosenzweig and O. Stark. (Ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics.Vol. 1B, Chapter 16. Amsterdam:North-Holland.\nKing, R. G. & R. Levine (1993). Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might be Right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737.\nKeynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Chap.13 & 15.\nLandis MacKellar, F. (1997). The Predicament of Population Aging: A Review Essay. Population and Development Review, 26(2), 365-397.\nNelson, C. R. & C. R. Plosser (1982). Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconmic Time Series:Some Evidence and Implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.\nPhillips, P. C. & P. Perron (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.\nRostow, W. W. (1960). The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.\nSaid, S. E. & D. A. Dickey (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive Moving Average Models of Unknown Order. Biometrika, 71(3), 599-607.\nSchwert, G. W. (1987). Effects of Model Specification on Tests for Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 20(1), 73-103.
描述: 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
108921079
資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108921079
資料類型: thesis
Appears in Collections:學位論文

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
107901.pdf2.91 MBAdobe PDF2View/Open
Show full item record

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric

Altmetric


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.