Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136640
題名: 川普政府對中遏制政策之形成:威脅平衡論之觀點
The Formation of the Donald Trump Administration’s Containment Policy toward China: A Perspective of Balance of Threat
作者: 陳芃叡
貢獻者: 黃奎博
陳芃叡
關鍵詞: 遏制政策
威脅平衡論
日期: 2021
上傳時間: 4-八月-2021
摘要:   美國對中共遏制(containment)政策始於1950年代,1970年代後逐漸趨於緩和,沉寂數十年後,遏制政策復於川普任內現其蹤影。本文發現,在分析遏制政策時,威脅平衡論(theory of balance of threat)可提供洞見,透過釐清威脅與遏制間之因果關係,能對遏制政策形成之原因有更深入認識。因此,本文將先闡述守勢現實主義下的威脅平衡論,考察理論淵源,修正威脅指標,使理論更適於分析本案。其次,本文透過考察攻勢意圖、權力與地理因素等威脅指標與整體威脅後發現,在川普政府認知中,中共對川普政府構成威脅且威脅日深。最後,本文爬梳遏制政策之歷史後發現,自2020年中,川普政府對中政策已合乎遏制要件,亦即遏制政策經歷從2017年底開始兩年多的醞釀始逐漸成形,在川普政府認知中,中共對美國安全、經濟、政治利益之全方位威脅導致川普政府對中採取日漸強硬之遏制政策。
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Pevehouse原著(2013)。《國際關係》。臺北:雙葉書廊。\n張亞中、左正東編(2013)。《國際關係總論》。臺北:揚智。\n蔡東杰(2010)。《中國外交史》。臺北:風雲論壇。\n顧淑馨、林添貴譯,Henry Kissinger原著(2014)。《大外交》。海口:海南出版社。\n\n(三)期刊論文\n\n黃奎博(2020)。美國臺海政策的矛與盾:川普前半任期的回顧(2017-2018)。《亞洲政經與和平研究》(頁41-64),第三期。\n\n(四)網際網路\n\n人民日報(2018)。新時代屬於每一個人!習近平這12個金句你記住了嗎?取得日期:2021年5月17日。檢自:http://cpc.people.com.cn/xuexi/BIG5/n1/2018/0320/c385474-29878456.html。\n人民日報(2019)。中國進入“雙航母時代” 一圖告訴你山東艦有多強!取得日期:2020年12月1日。檢自:http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2019/1217/c1011-31510503.html。\n人民日報(2020)。“著眼點著力點不能放在GDP增速上”。取得日期:2020年11月28日。檢自:http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2020/0523/c64094-31720348.html。\n人民日報(2020)。五個"必須"、五個"絕不答應"……習近平最新講話照亮前路。取得日期:2020年12月10日。檢自:http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2020/0904/c164113-31848883.html。\n人民日報(2020)。習近平:在紀念中國人民志願軍抗美援朝出國作戰70周年大會上的講話。取得日期:2020年12月10日。檢自:http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2020/1024/c64094-31904345.html。\n中國青年報(2020)。15式坦克,輕裝上陣的新一代“陸地猛虎”。取得日期:2020年12月1日。檢自:http://zqb.cyol.com/html/2020-04/30/nw.D110000zgqnb_20200430_1-08.htm。\n美國之音(2018)。因從俄軍購 美國制裁中國軍隊裝備發展部及其部長。取得日期:2021年2月18日。檢自:https://www.voachinese.com/a/US-CHINA-RUSSIA-MILITARY-SANCTIONS-20180920/4580190.html。\n美國之音(2018)。歐盟反轉 美歐日或聯手合圍中國。取得日期:2021年2月18日。檢自:https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-eu-agreed-to-tackle-china-on-trade-20180727/4503229.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter。\n美國之音(2019)。美國制裁13個中國實體和個人。取得日期:2021年2月18日。檢自:https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-sanctions-13-chinese-entities-and-individuals-20190523/4929107.html。\n美國之音(2019)。美國禁止向中國出售超級電腦相關零部件。取得日期:2021年2月19日。檢自:https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-bars-chinese-supercomputer-firms-from-buying-american-parts-20190621/4968743.html。\n新華社(2016)。三沙永興機場民航公務包機航班首航。取得日期:2020年12月3日。檢自:http://www.xinhuanet.com/mrdx/2016-12/23/c_135927263.htm。\n新華社(2019)。東風-17常規導彈方隊:使命必達的精確打擊尖刀。取得日期:2020年2月10日。檢自:http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2019-10/01/content_5435682.htm。\n新華社(2020)。《習近平關於中國特色大國外交論述摘編》出版發行。取得日期:2020年12月10日。檢自:http://www.mod.gov.cn/regulatory/2020-01/05/content_4858023.htm。\n新華社(2020)。亙古未有的偉大跨越——貴州66個貧困縣全部脫貧摘帽。取得日期:2020年11月28日。檢自:http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/www.gz.xinhuanet.com/2020-11/26/c_1126787486.htm。\n新華社(2020)。第一觀察 | 首次!習主席説中國將積極考慮加入這個協定。取得日期:2020年11月28日。檢自:http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/www.xinhuanet.com/world/2020-11/22/c_1126772494.htm。\n新華社(2020)。習近平出席建成暨開通儀式並宣佈北斗三號全球衛星導航系統正式開通 李克強韓正出席儀式。取得日期:2020年11月30日。檢自:http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-07/31/c_1126310703.htm。\n新華社(2020)。習近平:中國不會謀求“脫鉤”或是搞封閉排他的“小圈子”。取得日期:2020年11月28日。檢自:http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-11/19/c_1126758911.htm。\n新華社(2020)。習近平:切實做好第七次全國人口普查工作 為高品質發展提供準確統計資訊支援。取得日期:2020年11月27日。檢自:http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2020-11/02/c_1126688814.htm。\n新華社(2020)。國務院總理李克強會見中外記者 2020全國兩會直播。取得日期:2020年11月28日。檢自:http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020lh/zb/zljzh/index.htm。\n\n二、英文部分\n\n(一)官方文件\n\nGeorge F. Kennan (1946). Telegram from George Kennan Charge d`Affaires at United States Embassy in Moscow to the Secretary of State - The Long Telegram. Retrieved 13 December 2020, from: https://catalog.archives.gov/id/2642322/2/public?contributionType=tag.\nHarry S. Truman (1947). Truman Doctrine 1947. Retrieved 13 December 2020, from: https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc_large_image.php?flash=false&doc=81.\nU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2021). Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2020 (Advance Estimate). Retrieved February 21 2021, from: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-01/gdp4q20_adv.pdf.\nU.S. Census Bureau (2021). U.S. and World Population Clock. Retrieved February 21 2021, from: https://www.census.gov/popclock/.\nU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2021). Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC. Retrieved February 21 2021, from: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases.\nU.S. Central Intelligence Agency (2017). GDP – composition, by sector of origin. Retrieved February 21 2021, from: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/gdp-composition-by-sector-of-origin/.\nU.S. Congress (2016). H.Con.Res.88 - Reaffirming the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances as cornerstones of United States-Taiwan relations. Retrieved December 7 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/88/text.\nU.S. Congress (2017). National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/115/crpt/hrpt404/CRPT-115hrpt404.pdf.\nU.S. Congress (2018). Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/115/plaws/publ409/PLAW-115publ409.pdf.\nU.S. Congress (2018). National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/115/plaws/publ232/PLAW-115publ232.pdf.\nU.S. Congress (2019). Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/116/plaws/publ76/PLAW-116publ76.pdf.\nU.S. Congress (2019). National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/116/plaws/publ92/PLAW-116publ92.pdf.\nU.S. Congress (2020). National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. Retrieved February 20 2021, from: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/6395/text.\nU.S. Congress (2020). Hong Kong Autonomy Act. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/116/plaws/publ149/PLAW-116publ149.pdf.\nU.S. Congress (2020). Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019. Retrieved December 27 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/116/plaws/publ135/PLAW-116publ135.pdf.\nU.S. Congress (2020). Taiwan Travel Act. Retrieved December 27 2020, from: https://www.congress.gov/115/plaws/publ135/PLAW-115publ135.pdf.\nU.S. Department of Commerce (2018). Order Activating Suspended Denial Order Relating to Zhongxing Telecommunications Equipment Corporation and Zte Kangxun Telecommunications Ltd. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2018-04-23/pdf/2018-08354.pdf.\nU.S. Department of Commerce (2019). Department of Commerce Announces the Addition of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to the Entity List. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2019/05/department-commerce-announces-addition-huawei-technologies-co-ltd.\nU.S. Department of Commerce (2019). The Department of Commerce Identifies Entities of National Security Concern. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2019/05/department-commerce-identifies-entities-national-security-concern.\nU.S. Department of Commerce (2020). Statement from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross on Revocation of Hong Kong Special Status. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/06/statement-us-secretary-commerce-wilbur-ross-revocation-hong-kong.\nU.S. Department of Defense (2018). 2018 National Defense Strategy. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf.\nU.S. Department of Defense (2018). Remarks by Secretary Mattis at Plenary Session of the 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/1538599/remarks-by-secretary-mattis-at-plenary-session-of-the-2018-shangri-la-dialogue/.\nU.S. Department of Defense (2019). Indo-Pacific Strategy Report. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-INDO-PACIFIC-STRATEGY-REPORT-2019.PDF.\nU.S. Department of Defense (2020). DoD Annual Freedom of Navigation (FON) Reports. Retrieved December 5 2020, from: https://policy.defense.gov/OUSDP-Offices/FON/.\nU.S. Department of Defense (2020). Military and Security Development Involving the People`s Republic of China 2020. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF.\nU.S. Department of Energy (2018). DOE Announces Measures to Prevent China’s Illegal Diversion of U.S. Civil Nuclear Technology for Military or Other Unauthorized Purposes. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-measures-prevent-china-s-illegal-diversion-us-civil-nuclear-technology.\nU.S. Department of Homeland Security (2020). Homeland Threat Assessment 2020. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2020_10_06_homeland-threat-assessment.pdf.\nU.S. Department of the Navy (2020). Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday Holds Roundtable Media Interview. Retrieved February 20 2021, from: https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/Press-Briefings/display-pressbriefing/Article/2469650/chief-of-naval-operations-adm-mike-gilday-holds-roundtable-media-interview-jan-8/.\nU.S. Department of State (2018). Michael R. Pompeo. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/biographies/michael-r-pompeo/.\nU.S. Department of State (2018). Remarks on the UN Human Rights Council. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/remarks-on-the-un-human-rights-council/.\nU.S. Department of State (2019). A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Free-and-Open-Indo-Pacific-4Nov2019.pdf.\nU.S. Department of State (2019). Indo-Pacific Transparency Initiative. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/indo-pacific-transparency-initiative/.\nU.S. Department of State (2019). Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo Keynote Address at the Ministerial to Advance Religious Freedom. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/secretary-of-state-michael-r-pompeo-keynote-address-at-the-ministerial-to-advance-religious-freedom/.\nU.S. Department of State (2020). 2019 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/reports/2019-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/china/.\nU.S. Department of State (2020). Briefing with Senior U.S. Government Officials On the Closure of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Texas. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/briefing-with-senior-u-s-government-officials-on-the-closure-of-the-chinese-consulate-in-houston-texas/.\nU.S. Department of State (2020). Communist China and the Free World’s Future. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/.\nU.S. Department of State (2020). Indo-Pacific Transparency Initiative. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/indo-pacific-transparency-initiative-2/.\nU.S. Department of State (2020). Inaugural U.S.-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue. Retrieved December 27 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/inaugural-u-s-taiwan-economic-prosperity-partnership-dialogue/.\nU.S. Department of State (2020). The Elements of the China Challenge. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20-02832-Elements-of-China-Challenge-508.pdf.\nU.S. Department of State (2020). U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea. Retrieved December 6 2020, from: https://www.state.gov/u-s-position-on-maritime-claims-in-the-south-china-sea/.\nU.S. Department of the Treasury (2020). Treasury Designates China as a Currency Manipulator. Retrieved February 19 2021, from: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm751.\nU.S. Embassy in Malaysia (2018). Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Alex N. Wong on the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://my.usembassy.gov/deputy-assistant-secretary-for-east-asian-and-pacific-affairs-alex-n-wong-on-the-indo-pacific-strategy-040218/.\nU.S. Federal Communications Commission (2019). FCC Bars Use Of Universal Service Funding For Equipment & Services Posing National Security Risks. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-360976A1.pdf.\nU.S. Indo-Pacific Command (2018). U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Holds Change of Command Ceremony. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/1535776/us-indo-pacific-command-holds-change-of-command-ceremony/.\nU.S. Indo-Pacific Command (2020). Regain the Advantage: U.S. Indo- Pacific Command` s (USINDOPACOM) Investment Plan for Implementing the National Defense Strategy. Retrieved February 20 2021, from: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6864-national-defense-strategy-summ/8851517f5e10106bc3b1/optimized/full.pdf.\nU.S. Mission to the United Nations (2020). Reforming the Human Rights Council. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://usun.usmission.gov/fact-sheet-reforming-the-human-rights-council/.\nU.S. Marine Corps, Department of the Navy & Coast Guard (2020). Advantage at Sea: Prevailing with Integrated All-Domain Naval Power. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/16/2002553074/-1/-1/1/TRISERVICESTRATEGY.PDF.\nU.S. Trade Representative (2018). USTR Issues Tariffs on Chinese Products in Response to Unfair Trade Practices. Retrieved February 18 2021, from: https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/june/ustr-issues-tariffs-chinese-products.\nUS-China Economic and Security Review Commission (2018). China’s Overseas United Front Work: Background and Implications for the United States. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/China%27s%20Overseas%20United%20Front%20Work%20-%20Background%20and%20Implications%20for%20US_final_0.pdf.\nWhite House, The (2017). National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.\nWhite House, The (2018). Joint Statement of the United States and China Regarding Trade Consultations. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-china-regarding-trade-consultations/.\nWhite House, The (2018). President Donald J. Trump is Ending United States Participation in an Unacceptable Iran Deal. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-ending-united-states-participation-unacceptable-iran-deal/.\nWhite House, The (2018). President Donald J. Trump’s Summit Meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Retrieved 9 December 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-summit-meeting-prime-minister-shinzo-abe/.\nWhite House, The (2018). Presidential Memorandum on the Actions by the United States Related to the Section 301 Investigation. Retrieved December 24 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-actions-united-states-related-section-301-investigation/.\nWhite House, The (2018). Statement from the Press Secretary. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-38/.\nWhite House, The (2018). U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific. Retrieved February 19 2021, from: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/IPS-Final-Declass.pdf.\nWhite House, The (2019). Executive Order on Securing the Information and Communications Technology and Services Suply Chain. Retrieved December 25 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-securing-information-communications-technology-services-suply-chain/.\nWhite House, The (2020). Proclamation on Declaring a National Emergency Concerning the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/.\nWhite House, The (2020). The President’s Executive Order on Hong Kong Normalization. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidents-executive-order-hong-kong-normalization/.\nWhite House, The (2020). United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China. Retrieved December 26 2020, from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/U.S.-Strategic-Aproach-to-The-Peoples-Republic-of-China-Report-5.20.20.pdf.\n\n(二)書籍\n\nKenneth N. Waltz (1959). Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis. New York: Columbia University Press.\nKenneth N. Waltz (2010). Theory of International Politics. Illinois: Waveland Press.\nStephen M. Walt (1987). The original of alliances. New York: Cornell University Press.\n\n(三)期刊論文\n\nBalzacq, T., & Jervis, R. (2004). Logics of mind and international system: A journey with Robert Jervis. Review of International Studies, Vol. 30, No. 4, p. 559-582.\nChristensen, T., & Snyder, J. (2011). Multipolarity, Perceptions, and the Tragedy of 1914. International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 55, No. 2, p. 305-308.\nThe Centre for Economics and Business Research (2020). World Economic League Table 2021: A world economic league table with forecasts for 193 countries to 2035 (12th ed.), p. 70-71. Retrieved February 21 2021, from: https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/WELT-2021-final-15.01.pdf\nKwei-Bo Huang (2004). PRC Foreign Policy and Its Recent Development. Views & Policies, vol. 1, no.1, p. 55-72.\nKenneth N. Waltz (2000). Structural Realism after the Cold War. International Security, vol. 25, no. 1, p.5-41.\nKenneth N. Waltz (1988). The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Vol. 18, No. 4, p. 615-628.\nPosen, B. (1993). Nationalism, the Mass Army, and Military Power. International Security, vol. 18, No. 2, p. 80-124.\nStephen M. Walt (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, vol. 9, no. 4, p. 3-43.\n\n(四)網際網路\n\nGeorge F. Kennan (1947). The Sources of Soviet Conduct. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved 13 December 2020, from: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/1947-07-01/sources-soviet-conduct.\nJames Holmes (2020). Senkaku Islands: Could the U.S. Military and Japan Really Land Troops? The National Interest. Retrieved 9 December 2020, from: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/senkaku-islands-could-us-military-and-japan-really-land-troops-171786.\nReuters (2017). China says will protect South China Sea sovereignty. Retrieved December 5 2020, from: https://es.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1572M4.\nTop 500 The List (2020). TOP500 LIST - JUNE 2020. 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描述: 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
106253004
資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106253004
資料類型: thesis
Appears in Collections:學位論文

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