美國川普政府南海政策之研究：權力平衡理論

Abstract

美國川普政府2017年上任後在南海政策上，除了延續歐巴馬總統「重返亞洲」策略，亦強調「美國優先」的政策將亞洲戰略的主軸重新定義為「印太戰略」，並持續與東南亞國家協會國家保持密切合作關係，以對抗中共片面改變南海現況，本研究分析南海問題的背景與影響因素、美國對南海議題的戰略政策以及了解中共及相關國家的反應。本文藉由現實主義中權力平衡理論，說明國際體系間中共與美國隨著地緣政治的改變持續權力再平衡的過程與事實，美國提升在自由航行的頻率以及全方位對抗中共在南海的擴張。研究發現川普政府對南海議題安全與利益修正、21世紀美國政府南海政策演變、從「亞太戰略」到「印太戰略」、自由航行權與中共南海主權對抗；美國與中共南海競爭全面化、美國、中共及周邊國家競合、中共對美國南海議題政策回應、東協與中共的矛盾與摩擦、日、印、澳對南海議題政策態度。研究結果藉由南海國際仲裁結果、否定中共南海主權、川普政府美國優先政策、對中共採用單邊主義、美國強化印太戰略作為、持續維持全球霸權。最後，南海爭議是美中關係中一重要課題，也有南海終須一戰論述，就美國或中共而言，南海爭議中核心戰略利益，端視兩國重視程度而定，故兩國南海爭議未來是「衝突」或是「緩和」須看後續拜登政府上任後的南海政策發展。

We are regard to the South China Sea (SCS) policy after taking office in 2017, the Trump administration of the United States of America (USA) has not only continued President Obama’s “return to Asia” strategy but also emphasized that the “America First” policy redefines the main axis of the Asian strategy as the “Indo-Pacific strategy” and continues to Maintain close cooperative relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to counter the People`s Republic of China (PRC) unilateral changes in the SCS. This study analyzes the background and influencing factors of the SCS issue, the USA’s strategic policy on the SCS issue, and understands the responsibility of the PRC and related countries. This article uses the realist theory of power balance to illustrate the process and facts of the PRC and the United States continuing to rebalance power in the international system with the changes in geopolitics. The USA has increased its freedom of navigation and comprehensively confronted the PRC’s expansion in the SCS. The study found that the Trump administration’s security and interest amendments to the SCS issues, the evolution of the USA government’s SCS policy in the 21st century, from the “Asia-Pacific Strategy”, to the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, the right of free navigation and the PRC’s SCS sovereignty confrontation; the U.S. and the PRC’s SCS competition is comprehensive, The USA, the PRC, and neighboring countries compete and cooperate, the PRC`s policy response to the SCS issues of the USA, the conflicts and frictions between the ASEAN and the PRC, Japan, India, and Australia`s policy attitudes to the SCS issues. The results of the research are based on the results of the SCS international arbitration, the denial of the PRC’s sovereignty in the SCS, the Trump administration’s USA priority policy, the adoption of unilateralism towards the PRC, the US strengthening of the Indo-Pacific strategy, and the continued maintenance of global hegemony. Finally, the SCS dispute is an important issue in the USA - PRC relations, and there is also the argument that “The USA and PRC finally have a war.” However, as far as the PRC or the USA is concerned, the core strategic interests of the SCS depend on the importance of the two countries. Therefore, the SCS of China and the USA The future of the dispute will continue to be “conflict” or “relaxation” depending on the subsequent development of the Biden administration after taking office.