習近平時期對朝鮮半島安全與經濟研究：以地緣政治分析

Abstract

東北亞地區是世界上少有的聯繫緊密、利益交織的地區。朝鮮半島南北分裂改變不了地緣聯結和民族共生的基本架構。緊密聯繫可能產生兩種結果，一種是因為緊密而導致利益爭奪，發生激烈碰撞，甚至戰爭。近代以來，東北亞地區特別是朝鮮半島沒有停止過爭鬥、戰爭；另一種是因為緊密而產生合作，促進協商與共建，包括合作機制的構建。\n朝鮮半島地緣政治環境的新變化是中共和平崛起進程中出現的地緣政治均勢效應，由於地緣關係，朝鮮的核武發展戰略連結到中共的地緣政治環境，傷害中共在朝鮮半島的地緣政治利益，但中共對朝鮮政策卻受限於地緣政治因素，朝鮮的核武發展戰略，導致朝鮮半島地緣政治的風險增溫，朝鮮半島地緣形勢改變，造成中共在朝鮮半島的地緣政治壓力劇增，在此情況下，習近平不得不重視朝鮮在中美之間緩衝地帶的價值。\n朝鮮半島局勢逐漸朝向以政治方式解決的框架邁進，區域內經濟合作共識和一同繁榮發展符合東北亞地區國家的共同利益，習近平正在試圖引導朝鮮半島形勢且維繫和平合作的契機，使得東北亞地區的發展被注入新的活躍因素，中共在其中發揮著重要的引領作用。朝鮮半島局勢緩和帶來的東北亞區域經濟雙邊和多邊合作的趨勢，是發展未來東北亞區域經濟合作以及區域經濟一體化的難得的機遇。習近平希望把握東北亞區域經濟合作中朝鮮這一關鍵因素，針對朝鮮經濟注入中共影響力，引導朝鮮參與東北亞區域經濟合作。\n未來東北亞局勢或許將更進一步震蕩，積極與消極因素將長期交織存在，博弈和較量將貫穿於東北亞的合作之路，國家之間局部的、階段性的博弈無論其結果如何，終將不能阻礙新的環境條件下對新的目標和更大利益的追求。

Northeast Asia is one of the few regions in the world with close connections and intertwined interests. The North-South division of the Korean peninsula can not change the basic structure of geographic connections and ethnic symbiosis. Close ties may produce two results, one is that because of closeness, it leads to competition for interests, fierce collisions, and even wars. In modern times, Northeast Asia, especially the Korean peninsula, has never stopped fighting and war; the other is because of close cooperation, which promotes consultation and joint construction, including the construction of cooperation mechanisms.\nThe new change in the geopolitical environment of the Korean Peninsula is the geopolitical balance of power effect that appeared in the process of the peaceful rise of the CCP. Due to geopolitical relations, North Korea’s nuclear weapons development strategy is linked to the CCP’s geopolitical environment and hurts the CCP’s geopolitical interests on the Korean Peninsula. The North Korean policy is limited by geopolitical factors. North Korea’s nuclear weapons development strategy has led to increased geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula. The geopolitical situation on the Korean peninsula has changed, resulting in a sharp increase in the CCP’s geopolitical pressure on the Korean peninsula. Under this circumstance, Xi Jinping had to pay attention to the value of North Korea in the buffer zone between China and the United States.\nThe situation on the Korean Peninsula is gradually moving towards a framework for political resolution. The consensus on economic cooperation in the region and the common prosperity and development are in the common interests of Northeast Asian countries. Xi Jinping is trying to guide the situation on the Korean Peninsula and maintain an opportunity for peace and cooperation. Development has been injected with new active factors, and the CCP plays an important leading role in it. The trend of bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation in Northeast Asia brought about by the relaxation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula is a rare opportunity for the development of future Northeast Asian regional economic cooperation and regional economic integration. Xi Jinping hopes to grasp the key factor of North Korea in Northeast Asia regional economic cooperation, inject the influence of the CCP into North Korea`s economy, and guide North Korea to participate in Northeast Asia regional economic cooperation.\nThe situation in Northeast Asia may be further turbulent in the future. Positive and negative factors will be intertwined for a long time. Games and competition will run through the road of cooperation in Northeast Asia. Partial and phased games between countries will eventually fail regardless of the outcome. Obstruct the pursuit of new goals and greater benefits under new environmental conditions.