新冠疫情期間台灣生技醫療指數探討

Abstract

在COVID-19的衝擊下，經濟、社會受到嚴重的影響。在疫情的不確定下，生技醫療類股再度受到眾人的關注，期待疫苗、新藥的研發，同時隨著隔離、減少人員流動的情形下，人類生活也快速地轉向數位化。因此，本研究分別探討上市以及上櫃生技醫療指數報酬率與多項指數之相關影響，透過逐步迴歸選取變數，以及多元迴歸分析，來探討生技醫療指數與加權指數、電子指數等相關變數的關聯性。\r\n本研究採用的三個時段分別為2007年7月2日至2021年3月31日的全期間，2007年7月2日至2020年1月17日的疫情發生前，以及2020年1月30日至2021年3月31日的疫情發生後。研究結果顯示，上市生技醫療指數報酬率在三個時段中，皆受到上市電子指數報酬率、上市加權指數報酬率、上市加權指數成交量變動率、上市生技醫療指數成交值變動率的影響。而上櫃生技醫療指數報酬率在三個時段中，受上櫃生技醫療指數成交量變動率、上櫃電子指數報酬率、上櫃加權指數報酬率、上櫃加權指數成交量變動率、上櫃電子指數成交量變動率的影響。

Under the pandemic, the economy and society have been severely affected. The public focus on Biotechnology and Medical Care Industry, and expect good news of vaccines as well as new medicine. Simultaneously, with the isolation and reduction of the migration of people, human life is digitalized rapidly. Consequently, this research hopes to explore the relationship between the Biotechnology and Medical Care Index and the independent variables before and after the pandemic through multiple regression analysis using the stepwise approach.\r\nThe sampling data of this research are the daily data from July 2007 to March 2021. These data are organized into three groups by different time periods and analyzed respectively for comparison. The three time periods in this study are (1) the whole period from July 2, 2007 to March 31, 2021, (2) before the outbreak of the epidemic - from July 2, 2007 to January 17, 2020, and (3) after the outbreak - from January 30, 2020 to March 31, 2021. Within each of these three intervals, the return rate of the Biotechnology and Medical Care Index in Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation (TWSE) and Taipei Exchange Market (TPEx) are dependent variables.\r\nThe results indicate that the return rate of Biotechnology and Medical Care Index in Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation was affected by the return rate of Electronic Index, the return rate and the rate of change in the trading volume of Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, and the rate of change in the trading value of Biotechnology and Medical Care Index during the three time periods. Moreover, in the Taipei Exchange Market, the return rate of Biotechnology and Medical Care Index was affected by the rate of change in the trading volume of Biotechnology and Medical Care Industry Index, the return rate of the Electronic Index and Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, and the rate of change in the trading volume of the Electronic Index and Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index during the three time periods.