Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/137049

Title: 中國一胎化政策的「失蹤女性」效應
The ";Missing Women";Effect of the One-Child Policy in China
Authors: 蔡儀儂
Tsai, Yi-Nung
Contributors: 蘇彥斌
Su, Yen-Pin
Tsai, Yi-Nung
Keywords: 威權政體
authoritarian regime
fertility governance
One-Child Policy
missing women
Date: 2021
Issue Date: 2021-09-02 17:37:27 (UTC+8)
Abstract:   中國的性別失衡問題,廣被學界關注。先前許多研究認為,性別鑑定技術的進步,係造成發展中國家新生兒性比例失衡的重要原因。在「一胎化」政策廣泛推行的1980年代,中國官方投入了大量的節育資源,但相較於城市,農村分配到的醫療資源有限,也因此,涉及性別選擇的墮胎技術在農村並不常見。在這樣的情況下,為何中國農村仍出現嚴重的性別失衡?其次,為何有些地區的性別失衡,遠比其他地區嚴重?


Sex ratio imbalance in China has increasingly drawn scholarly attention. Many previous studies argue that the improvement of sex identification techniques is a crucial explanatory factor for the imbalance of China's sex ratio at birth. During the 1980s, Chinese government had promoted the One-Child Policy by investing a significant amount of birth control resources. However, because medical resources were unevenly distributed, abortion techniques that involved sex identification were rare in the rural areas. Under this situation, why did serious sex ratio imbalance occur in China’s rural areas? In addition, why were some rural areas’ sex ratio imbalance more serious than others?

To address these questions, this dissertation provides an explanation about fertility governance in authoritarian regimes, using macro-level, meso-level, and micro-level perspectives for analyses. First of all, at the macro-level, we use the concept of fragmented authoritarianism to explain the interactions between political elites and technocrats in the decision-making process of the One-Child-Policy. We discuss how this fertility policy was resisted by the local people and resulted in the unintended consequence of worsening sex ratio imbalance. Second, at the meso-level, we build a formal model of interactions between the central government and the local governments. In this game-theoretic model, we explain that the pressures from the central government for achieving fertility policy goals had created incentives for the local bureaucrats to avoid political punishment by providing sex identification tools in exchange of people's compliance with the birth control policy. Third, at the micro-level, we build a county-level dataset to examine why sex ratio imbalance was more serious in some rural areas but not others. We hypothesize that after sex identification techniques were introduced, a county will have higher levels of sex ratio imbalance if it has a stronger local party-state structure for fertility control. Our empirical analysis supports this hypothesis, and the results are robust across different model specifications.

Overall, this dissertation makes two contributions across different social science disciplines. First, it contributes to the literature on population research by showing the importance of sex-identification technical innovation and party-state structure for understanding sex ratio imbalance in authoritarian political contexts. Second, it enriches theories of authoritarian politics by providing a game-theoretic model and systematic empirical analyses to explain the origins and consequences of the compulsory fertility policy in China.
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