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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/137063
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dc.contributor.advisor徐士勛zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisorHsu, Shih-Hsunen_US
dc.contributor.author盧博廉zh_TW
dc.contributor.authorLu, Bo-Lianen_US
dc.creator盧博廉zh_TW
dc.creatorLu, Bo-Lianen_US
dc.date2021en_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-02T09:42:44Z-
dc.date.available2021-09-02T09:42:44Z-
dc.date.issued2021-09-02T09:42:44Z-
dc.identifierG0108258016en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/137063-
dc.description碩士zh_TW
dc.description國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description108258016zh_TW
dc.description.abstract本文研究美國股票與公債市場戰略式投資輪轉策略。首先，本文修 改 Pagan and Sossounov (2003) 提出的規則，將股票與公債認定成三 種不同的週期，分別為「月報酬方向」、「短週期趨勢」、「長週期 趨勢」。實證方面則是採用遞迴法，每期均會使用 ADF 檢定與 Lasso Logistic Regression 重新篩選一次變數，最後再使用 Logit 模型進行機 率估計。樣本外投資績效方面，本文發現三種模型均顯著優於大盤表 現，其中「短週期模型」所得到的績效表現最佳。另外，本文也發現 三種模型在不同期間選擇的變數均不盡相同，顯示相對於傳統方法， 採用遞迴選取變數法，不但可以看出三個模型所採用的變數均不相 同，並且每一個變數在不同時間下，對於股債項牛市機率也有不同的 預估能力。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents1 前言 1\n2 文獻回顧 3\n2.1 金融資產熊牛市定義相關文獻 3\n2.2 兩資產輪轉相關文獻 4\n2.3 變數選擇 5\n3 研究方法與模型 7\n3.1 研究流程圖 7\n3.2 兩資產的熊牛市認定基準 9\n3.3 篩選變數 11\n3.3.1 AugmentedDickey–Fuller(ADF)檢定 12\n3.3.2 LassoLogisticRegression(LLR) 13\n3.4 Logit模型 14\n3.5 衡量模型結果與績效分析 16\n4 資料與基本統計性質 19 4.1 股市、債市熊牛市認定 19\n4.2 變數 22\n5 實證結果 23\n5.1 變數選擇結果 23\n5.2 短週期樣本內預測結果 24\n5.3 短週期樣本外預測結果 26\n6 結論 32\n7 參考文獻 38\nA 附錄-變數詳細說明 41\nB 附錄-長週期實證結果 43\nB.1 長週期模型股債熊牛市 43\nB.2 長週期實證結果 44\nC 附錄-月報酬方向實證結果 50\nC.1 月報酬方向模型股債熊牛市 50\nC.2 月報酬實證結果 51zh_TW
dc.format.extent9228675 bytes-
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf-
dc.source.urihttp://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108258016en_US
dc.subject股票與公債輪轉zh_TW
dc.subject戰略式投資策略zh_TW
dc.subject股債熊牛市機率zh_TW
dc.subjectLogit 模型zh_TW
dc.subjectROC 曲線zh_TW
dc.subjectLasso Logistic Regressionen_US
dc.title美國股票與公債市場戰略性投資輪轉策略-動態 Logit 模型的應用zh_TW
dc.titleTactical Rotation Strategy of Stock and Government Bond Markets in the United States: An Application of Dynamic Logit modelen_US
dc.typethesisen_US
dc.relation.reference何興強和周開國(2006)，「牛、市週期和股市間的週期熊性」，《管理世界》，4，35-40。\n徐婉容(2020)，「認定與預測台灣股市熊市」，《中央銀行季刊》，42(2)，37-72。\nAhmed, J., Straetmans, S. (2015), “Predicting Exchange Rate Cycles Utilizing Risk Factors,” Journal of Empirical Finance, 34, 112–130.\nChen, Shiu-Sheng (2009), “Predicting the Bear Stock Market: Macroeconomic Variables as Leading Indicators,” Journal of Banking & Finance,33(2), 211-223.\nClewell, D., Faulkner-Macdonagh, C., Giroux, D., Page, S., Shriver, C. (2017), “Macroeconomic Dashboards for Tactical Asset Allocation,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, 44(2), 50–61.\nEugene F. Fama, Kenneth R. French (1993), “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds,” Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1),3-56.\nGonzalez, L., Powell, J., Shi, J., Wilson, A. (2005), “Two Centuries of Bull and Bear Market Cycles,” International Review of Economics Finance,14(4), 469–486.\nGranger, C., Newbold, P., Econom, J. (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,” Baltagi, Badi H. A Companion of Theoretical Econometrics, 557–61.\nGrauer, R., Hakansson, N., Shen, F. (1990), “Industry Rotation in the Us Stock Market: 1934–1986 Returns on Passive, Semi-Passive, and Active Strategies,” Journal of Banking Finance, 14(2-3), 513–538.\nLevis, M., Liodakis, M. (1999), “The Profitability of Style Rotation Strategies in the United Kingdom,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(1),73-86.\nLunde, A., Timmermann, A. (2004), “Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 22(3), 253-273.\nMaheu, J., McCurdy, T. (2000), “Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns,”Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), 100-112.\nNelson, C., Plosser, C. (1982), “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139–162.\nNyberg, H. (2013), “Predicting Bear and Bull Stock Markets With Dynamic Binary Time Series Models,” Journal of Banking Finance, 37(9), 3351–3363.\nPagan, A., Sossounov, K. (2003), “A Simple Framework for Analysing Bull and Bear Markets,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 23–46.\nSaid, S., Dickey, D. (1984), “Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order,” Biometrika, 71(3), 599–607.\nShiller, R., Black, L., Jivraj, F. (2020), CAPE and the COVID-19 Pandemic Effect, Available at SSRN 3714737.\nTibshirani, R. (1996), “Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 58(1),267–288.39\nWu, T., Chen, Y., Hastie, T., Sobel, E., Lange, K. (2009), “Genome-Wide Association Analysis by Lasso Penalized Logistic Regression,” Bioin-formatics, 25(6), 714–721.zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi10.6814/NCCU202101344en_US
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