中國大陸閩浙滬三地氣候與空氣品質對房價之影響及其價值評估

Abstract

本研究運用來自華人家庭動態資料庫（Panel Study of Family Dynamics, PSFD）、統計年鑒、政府工作報告與國民經濟和社會發展統計公報之中國大陸閩浙滬2017年與2019年之地級與縣級行政區的橫截面數據，將房屋交易市場區隔為福建省、浙江省、上海市三大市場，應用特徵價格法（Hedonic Price Method, HPM）就氣候與空氣品質對房屋年租金的影響問題進行普通最小平方法迴歸分析，進而估計出氣候之邊際願付價值。迴歸模型以房屋年租金為應變數，以氣候、空氣品質與房屋其他特徵變數為自變數，其中氣候指標為一七兩月月均溫與月均雨量，以及年均雨量，空氣品質指標為細顆粒物（PM2.5）之歷史平均空氣品質指數。透過本研究實證結果可知，上海市家戶喜愛居住於冬季溫暖七月少雨之地區，在閩浙兩省，夏季涼爽全年少雨的氣候更受家戶喜愛；在邊際願付價值(marginal willingness to pay, MWTP)評估方面，當一月月均溫上升1℃，每個上海市家戶願付4.666萬元人民幣，相反的，較少的七月月均雨量被視為良好環境品質特徵，七月月均雨量減少1mm，每個上海市家戶願付1.159萬元人民幣；當七月月均溫下降1℃，居住於浙江省與福建省之每個家戶分別願付1.461與0.473萬元人民幣，年均雨量減少1mm，分別願付0.0195與0.0302萬元人民幣；值得注意的是，空氣品質與房屋年租金之間無論在何地皆無顯著之負相關關係，本研究認為其原因是為當時上海市與浙江省的平均空氣品質指數約為100，福建省更是只有約80，都為普通的空氣品質，相比空氣品質不好的北方地區，在閩浙滬空氣品質尚未成為民眾選擇住址時的考慮因素。

This paper first estimates the hedonic housing price functions in Fujian, Zhejiang and Shanghai, respectively, using the cross-sectional data of prefecture-level or county-level cities from the PSFD database, Statistical Yearbook, Government Work Report, Statistics Communique on National Economic and Social Development in 2017 and 2019. The regression model takes the annual housing rent as the dependent variable, and the environment and other characteristics as the independent variables. Then, this paper studies the impact of climate and air quality on housing prices and estimates the marginal willingness to pay of climate using the estimated hedonic housing price functions. We find that Shanghai households prefer warmer winter and dryer summer, and Zhejiang and Fujian households prefer cooler summer and dryer all year round. Using the marginal willingness to pay, we find that every Shanghai household is willing to pay RMB 46,660 for a 1℃ higher January temperature, RMB 1,1590 for 1 mm lower July precipitation. When the July temperature drops by 1℃, every household in Zhejiang and Fujian is willing to pay RMB 14,610 and RMB 4,730 respectively. The estimated marginal willingness to pay from 1mm less annul precipitation for each household in the two provinces are around RMB 195 and RMB 473, respectively. We find no significant negative correlation between air quality and annual housing rent. Therefore, we can conclude that the average AQI of Shanghai and Zhejiang is about 100, the average AQI of Fujian is even only 80 at that time, AQI 100 and 80 mean that the air quality is moderate. Compared with the northern region with poor air quality, fresh air is yet a concern when people choose where to live when the air quality levels are moderate.