臺灣各縣市住宅負擔能力對其生育率之影響

Abstract

本研究旨在探討住宅負擔能力（房價所得比）對一般生育率之影響，並採用過去研究文獻中較少考慮到的空間計量模型進行估計空間自相關程度。\n透過臺灣地區20個縣市於2006年至2019年間共280筆之追蹤資料，藉由Hausman 及Wald 檢定結果，採用固定效果空間杜賓模型。在考量生育率落後一期之情況下，經實證結果顯示，上開期間各地區生育率於空間分布有聚集情形，確實存在空間相依關係。其次是各地區內房價所得比、平均家戶可支配所得與粗結婚率對一般生育率具有顯著的正向影響，其中並以家戶可支配所得影響生育率之結果最為明顯；自有住宅率對於生育率雖為正向影響，但效果並不顯著。另外，女性勞動力參與率、人口密度及扶老比，對一般生育率呈現顯著的負向影響。研究結果發現，因政府近年來推出多項超低利率的青年成家住宅優惠貸款，使得購置自住使用之房屋成本降低，且貸出的款項可做投資並供作生育基金，而擁有房屋的穩定感及房價上漲增值所帶來之財富累積利益，均可能會促使提高生育意願，導致房價所得比對生育率為正向影響。\n最後，根據研究結果，政府倘要鼓勵青年成家及催生育兒，宜從根本緩解育齡民眾的經濟壓力及購屋負擔，建議可與企業聯手提供育兒家庭經濟支持及強化家庭照顧能力作為生育政策的首要目標，並推行協助青年家庭適合居住之住宅政策。

This study aims to investigate the impact of housing affordability (house-price-to- income ratio) on the general fertility rate(GFR), and uses spatial measurement models that have been less considered in the past research literature to estimate the degree of spatial self-correlation.\nBased on a total of 280 panel data from 20 counties and cities in Taiwan during 2006 to 2019, using the results of Hausman test and Wald test showed that the spatial Durbin model with fixed effects. The empirical results showed that the lag GFR in each region during the period of time has aggregated in the spatial distribution, and there is a spatial dependence relationship. Secondly, house-price-to-income ratio, average household disposable income, and crude marriage rate had significant positive effect on the general fertility rate. Among them, the household disposable income has the most obvious effect on the fertility rate, while the homeownership rate had positive effect on the lag GFR, but not significantly. The female labor force participation rate, population density, and old dependency ratio had significant negative effect on the lag GFR. The results might imply that the government has launched several preferential loans for young family in recent years. The ultra-low loan interest rate has reduced the cost of buying houses for self-occuption, and the loaned money can be used for investment and used as a fertility fund. The sense of stability for owning a house and the wealth accumulation benefits brought about by the rising of house price may promote the willingness to bear children.\nFinally, according to the research results, if the government wants to encourage young people to start a family and give birth to children, it should alleviate the financial pressure and housing burden of the people of childbearing age. It is recommended that the government cooperates with enterprises to provide financial support for families with children and strengthen family’s care capabilities as the primary goal of the fertility policy, as well as implemenst to assist young families with a livable housing policy.