地下經濟、經濟成長、所得分配與金融發展的互動關係-台灣的實證分析

Abstract

過去的文獻對於經濟成長、所得分配與金融發展三者的互動關係，有很多探討，也都發現三者存在密不可分的關係。此外，也有許多文獻發現地下經濟分別對於經濟成長、所得分配與金融發展有顯著的影響，但並未有文獻同時探討此四種變數之間的互動關係。由於地下經濟在不同區域以不同形式呈現及扮演著不同角色，且在台灣佔國內GDP比例高達二成以上，因此將地下經濟之變數納入考量，進而探討台灣地下經濟、經濟成長、所得分配與金融發展彼此之間可能的互動關係。\n\n 本文透過蒐集台灣1981年第一季至2019年第四季的資料加以分析，利用共整合VAR模型及VECM向量誤差修正模型之研究方法探究四個變數的互動關係。透過Johansen共整合實證結果，發現地下經濟、經濟成長、所得分配與金融發展四個變數具有一個共整合關係，顯示各模型變數間存在著長期均衡關係，共整合向量係數顯示各變數間均有正向之關係。在長期均衡關係中，本文發現所得分配對於經濟成長的影響程度最大；透過VECM短期Granger因果關係顯示，金融發展與經濟成長皆會單向的影響地下經濟、所得分配與地下經濟短期間互不影響、所得分配與經濟成長則互為因果關係。由以上實證結果發現，地下經濟在我國總體經濟發展中扮演著重要的角色，政府在做金融或是經濟決策時，應將地下經濟納入考量，才能真實的探討所得分配、經濟成長與金融發展的關係，制定出更加精準的決策。

In the past literature, there have been many discussions on the interaction among economic growth, income distribution and financial development, and they have also found that the three are inseparable. In addition, there are also many literatures that find that the underground economy has a significant impact on economic growth, income distribution, and financial development. However, there is no literature that discusses the interaction between these four variables at the same time. Since the underground economy presents in different forms and plays different roles in different regions, and accounts for more than 20% of domestic GDP in Taiwan. Therefore, the underground economy is taken into consideration to discuss the possible interactions among Taiwan`s underground economy, economic growth, income distribution and finance development.\n\nThis article analyzes the data collected in Taiwan from the first quarter of 1981 to the fourth quarter of 2019, and uses the research method of the VAR and the VECM to explore the interaction of these four variables. Through Johansen`s cointegration verification results, it is found that there is cointegration relationship among underground economy, economic growth, income distribution and financial development , which shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the model variables. The coefficient of cointegration vector shows that each variable has a positive relationship. In the long-term equilibrium relationship, this article finds that income distribution has the greatest impact on economic growth. The short-term Granger causality test of VECM shows that both financial development and economic growth will unilaterally affect the underground economy, income distribution and underground economy will not affect each other in a short period of time, income distribution and economic growth are mutually causal. From the above results, it is found that the underground economy plays an important role in the overall economic development of our country. The government should take the underground economy into consideration when making financial or economic decisions, so as to truly discuss the relationship among income distribution, economic growth and financial development to make more precise decisions.