中國「一帶一路」倡議之研究－以珍珠鏈戰略為例

Abstract

本文研究目的有三個，首先是分析珍珠鏈戰略之建構與意涵，接著是觀察一帶一路倡議對珍珠鏈國家與中國間的交互作用，最後是分析中國一帶一路倡議之珍珠鏈戰略面臨的機遇與挑戰。研究範圍以海上絲路為主，特別是珍珠鏈戰略沿線國家。研究方法為文獻分析法。中國透過一帶一路倡議欲達成五個目的，擴大與鄰為友，降低戰爭風險、將過剩產能向外拓展、突破島鏈封鎖、提升國際上實質影響力以及實踐斯皮克曼（Nicholas John Spykman）提出之邊緣地帶論（Rimland theory）。\n2013年中國國家主席習近平發表了全球矚目的一帶一路倡議。對內是為了消化產能，對外是為了暢通貿易交通。此倡議之實際效益卻遠大於中國官方所述。中國為了海上石油運輸安全，刻意繞過傳統的麻六甲海峽路線，規劃由緬甸、巴基斯坦等鄰國運輸天然資源至中國，這些港口平時是商貿用途，戰時將成為軍事補給站。美國擔憂一帶一路倡議將影響其世界霸主地位。印度也因為被中國打造的海上長城包圍，不安全感急遽升高，以上因素促使美日印澳四國召開四方會談，商討印度太平洋地區安全與自由貿易機制。在21世紀的今天，中國的影響力大幅提升，關注這個議題，可以提升對印太區域甚至全球未來的經濟發展與國家安全之理解。

There are three research purposes in this paper, first, is to analyze the construction and meaning of the string of pearls strategy. Next, is to observe the interaction of the Belt and Road Initiative on the interaction between the string of pearls strategy countries and China. Finally, is to analyzes the opportunities and challenges of the string of pearls strategy of the Belt and Road Initiative. The research scope is mainly on the Maritime Silk Road, especially the countries along the string of pearls strategy. The research method is the Document Analysis. China wants to achieve five goals through the Belt and Road Initiative, expand friendly interactions with neighboring countries to reduce the risk of war, expand the excess domestic production capacity outwards, break through the Island Chain Strategy conceived by American, enhance China`s substantive influence in the international arena, and practice Spykman’s Rimland theory.\nIn 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative, which has attracted worldwide attention. Internally, it is to digest production capacity, and externally, unblock trade traffic. The actual benefits of the initiative are far greater than those stated by Chinese officials. For the safety of maritime oil transportation, in addition to the original Malacca maritime transport route, China is also planning to transport natural resources from neighboring countries such as Myanmar and Pakistan. Those ports are for commercial use in peacetime, and will become a military supply station in wartime. The United States is worried that the the Belt and Road Initiative will affect the United States’ status as world hegemon. China created a Great Wall on the sea, which surrounded India, which caused a sharp increase in India’s sense of insecurity, and prompted the United States, Japan, India and Australia to jointly convene a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to discuss security and free trade in the Indo-Pacific region. Today in the 21st century, China’s influence has greatly increased. By paying attention to this topic, we can understand the future economic development and national security trends of the entire Indo-Pacific region and even the world.