難民對東道國經濟之影響— 以孟加拉的羅興亞人為例

Abstract

根據聯合國2019年的報告，目前全球共有7080萬名非法移民，其中有390萬名為無國籍人士，而這些無國籍難民中，羅興亞難民被視為「受到最嚴重迫害的一群」。孟加拉政府認為接收羅興亞難民對該國帶來沈重經濟負擔，因此孟加拉政府近年來已不再接收羅興亞難民，並盡可能遣返該國的羅興亞難民。本論文旨在以孟加拉的羅興亞難民為例，採取混合研究方法，透過以次級資料分析為主的質性研究法與計量模型的時間序列量化分析，探討難民對東道國經濟的影響。相較於其他研究案例，本文案例特殊之處在於羅興亞人與孟加拉當地不存在交流壁壘，且孟加拉對羅興亞難民的特殊安置方式使該國擁有世界上規模最大且集中的難民營。既有相關文獻主要是從勞動、工資、經濟增長、貿易等面向探討難民對東道國產生之經濟影響。關於貿易市場的分析，主要分為國際貿易以及難民營地內外的貿易；勞動市場部分的研究則以勞動力、工作機會、薪資和生產技術四個面向進行討論。本研究兼採質性與量化研究方法，一方面透過分析次級文獻，從家計（包括消費支出、勞動要素等）、廠商（難民營內外商家開設所導致之交易行為）、政府（主要是政府接受之國際援助）等面向檢視羅興亞難民對孟加拉經濟的影響，同時也建構計量模型，針對政府面向進行時間序列分析。本研究結果顯示，難民的湧入對東道國而言的確會在社會、環境、安全等面向產生程度不一的負面影響，但就難民對東道國經濟的影響而言，東道國若能採用集中管理的方式是有機會將難民湧入東道國的危機轉化爲經濟機遇。在本研究的案例中孟加拉特殊的難民營群聚模式在當地衍生出活絡的經濟活動，帶動營地周邊的經濟效益，羅興亞難民為孟加拉的經濟帶來了良好的刺激效果。

According to a 2019 report by the United Nations, there are currently 70.8 million illegal immigrants worldwide, 3.9 million of whom are stateless persons. The Rohingya people are a group of these stateless refugees who have been considered “the most persecuted”. The Bangladeshi government believes providing asylum to the Rohingya refugees will exact a heavy economic toll on the country. The government has thus ceased receiving Rohingya refugees in recent years and has spared no effort in the repatriation of Rohingya refugees residing within its borders. To conduct a case study that examines the impact Rohingya refugees have had on the economy of their host country of Bangladesh, this thesis aims to employ researchs approach of mixed methods involving both qualitative research methods based on secondary data analysis, as well as quantitative analysis using time-series econometrics. The case study in this research differs from others in that there is no communication barrier between the Rohingya people and Bangladeshi locals. Furthermore, the Bangladeshi government’s settlement of Rohingya refugees has resulted in the country housing the world’s largest and densest refugee camp. Existing literature on the matter primarily investigates aspects such as labor, wages, economic growth, and trade to observe the effects refugees have on the host country’s economy. Analysis of the trade market is generally divided into two main topics: international trade and trade within and outside of the refugee camp. Some research on the labor market limits its scope to the labor force, employment opportunities, salary, and production technology. This study draws on both qualitative and quantitative research methods to examine how Rohingya refugees affect the Bangladeshi economy. To accomplish this, the author first analyzes secondary documents to look at households (including crucial factors such as consumption expenditures and labor), producers (trade generated by starting businesses in and outside the refugee camp), and the government (mainly international aid accepted by the government). The author then constructs an econometric model to analyze time-series data on the government. The results of this research show that an influx of refugees into the host country does adversely affect the country’s society, environment, and safety to varying degrees. However, in regards to how these refugees influence the host country’s economy, it is possible to turn the crisis of refugee inflow into opportunities for economic growth if the host country can adopt a centralized management method. The unique Bangladesh refugee camp cluster system in this case study has given rise to thriving local economic activity and benefited the economy of the camp’s surrounding region, thus indicating that the Rohingya refugees have had a positive impact on the Bangladeshi economy.