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Title: Examining the 'Referendum Theory' in Taiwan’s Local Elections
Authors: 俞振華
Yu , Eric Chen-hua
Lim, Kah-yew
Contributors: 選研中心
Keywords: Local elections; midterm elections; referendum theory; government performance; approval rating; incumbency
Date: 2020-10
Issue Date: 2021-10-27 14:36:40 (UTC+8)
Abstract: This paper analyzes the extent to which the performances of local and national governments can shape local election outcomes. Specifically, we use various waves of survey data from Taiwan’s Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to explore whether a person’s assessments of local and central government performances affect his/her vote for the incumbent party candidate. Our empirical findings partially verify the so-called “referendum theory” and can be summarized as follows: First, voters who hold a positive assessment of the performance of local government are more likely to vote for an incumbent who seeks reelection, but this is not necessarily the case for an incumbent party candidate in an open-seat contest. Second, Taiwan’s local elections cannot be regarded as referenda on the central government because the central government approval rating does not consistently affect vote choices across different types/levels of local elections.
Relation: Journal of Asian and African Studies, 56:6
Data Type: article
DOI 連結:
Appears in Collections:[選舉研究中心] 期刊論文

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