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Strategizing US-China Competition in Southeast Asia: Power Transition Revisited or Reversed?
Pivot to Asia
|Issue Date:||2021-11-01 12:16:44 (UTC+8)|
For the past three decades, the world is dominated by a stable hierarchy with only one superpower, i.e., the US. However, the relative decline of the US and the rise of China as America’s leading competitor, however, appear to shadow globe with the concern of another cold war. The trade war given rise to by the Trump government against China is now going on like a raging fire. As the Khmer proverb goes, “When elephants fight, the ants perish.” The whole world is unrestful with the two major powers “communicating” violently. At the beginning of year 2018, The Economist published a cover story titled, “The Next War: The Growing Danger of Great Power Conflict”, which detailed how shifts in technology and geopolitics are bringing the threat of great-power conflict back. In this view, “conflict on a scale and intensity not seen since the Second World War is once again plausible.”
Of the scope of Balance of Power, the international system leans to peace when the power of major players converges to equivalence. While borrowing the lens of Power Transition Theory to look into the competition between the two great powers, China and the US, when one state’s power approaches that of another state and dissatisfaction level is high, the risk of initiating a war soars. As the confrontation between is escalating, the paper is to look into primary official documents as well as secondary data supplemented with the study of the practice of both sides in Southeast Asia and analyze whether power transition has revisited this era or the current dominant power can reverse the shift of power.
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