Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/137742


Title: 測量與比較艾奎諾與杜特蒂掌政下菲律賓在中美之間的外交抉擇行為
WHO IS MY NEIGHBOR? MEASURING PHILIPPINE ALIGNMENT BEHAVIOR BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES UNDER AQUINO AND DUTERTE
Authors: 柯禔瑜
Cua, Teri
Contributors: 王信實
Wang, Shinn-Shyr
柯禔瑜
Cua, Teri
Keywords: 菲律賓結盟戰略
Duterte外交政策
Aquino外交政策
亞洲區域強國
美菲關係
中菲關係
Philippine alignment strategy
Duterte foreign policy
Aquino foreign policy
Asian regional power
US-Philippine relations
China-Philippine relations
Date: 2021
Issue Date: 2021-11-01 12:23:26 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 在美中兩強的競爭中,亞太地區如菲律賓等小國必須在戰略上與大國結盟。在過去的幾十年裡,不同領導人領導下的菲律賓以各種的形式做到了這一點,本研究則著重於 Benigno Aquino III 和 Rodrigo Roa Duterte 兩位領導人的比較。簡而言之,前者選擇了一種平衡戰略,積極尋求與美國軍事和經濟的連結,並在與中國的領土爭端問題上採取激進的立場。相較之下,後者擱置了菲律賓與華盛頓根深蒂固的關係,轉而支持與鄰近霸權的經濟友好關係,並尋求南海議題的合作與和平解決。本研究透過總統的互訪做為政治因素,市場互動做為經濟指標,以及公眾輿論做為社會傾向,以衡量兩屆政府在這三個面向的異同。研究結果顯示,在所有這三個面向,Aquino政府都傾向於與美國合作,而Duterte政府相對於前任領導人所奉行的外交政策,則表現出對中國漸進的轉向。
Between the rivalry of the United States and China, small countries such as the Philippines must strategically align themselves. Over the past decades, the country under various leaders have done it one way or another. This study focuses on the alignment behavior that resulted from the leadership of Benigno Aquino III and Rodrigo Roa Duterte. The former chose a balancing strategy by actively pursuing military and economic ties with the United States and taking an aggressive stance on the matter of territorial disputes with China. In contrast, the latter sets aside the Philippines’ deeply rooted ties with Washington in favor of economic amities with its neighboring hegemon, and peace and cooperation in the South China Sea. The marked contrast of the two administrations are quantifiably measured in this study through presidential visits as political factors, market interaction as economic indicators, and public opinion as social leaning. The findings show that in all of these fronts, the Aquino administration favors cooperation with the United States, while the Duterte administration exhibits an obtuse pivot towards China relative to the foreign policies pursued by the previous leadership.
Reference: Beijing rejects tribunal's ruling in South China Sea case. (2016, July 12). Retrieved from The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china
Blanchard, B. (2016, October 20). Duterte aligns Philippines with China, says U.S. has lost. Retrieved June 1, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-idUSKCN12K0AS
Cheng, W. (2010, December 13). PNoy stands by decision to boycott Nobel rite. (ABS-CBN News) Retrieved June 22, 2021, from https://news.abs-cbn.com/nation/12/13/10/pnoy-stands-decision-boycott-nobel-rite
Chiang, J. (2017). Philippine Foreign Policy in the 21st Century: the Influence of Double-Asymmetric Structure. Retrieved from https://web.isanet.org/Web/Conferences/HKU2017-s/Archive/e35950e1-db89-4726-b72e-671a86b59ca3.pdf
China’s Xi says ‘deeply touched,’ ‘impressed’ by Duterte during Manila visit. (2018, November 22). (ABS-CBN News) Retrieved June 21, 2021, from https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/22/18/chinas-xi-says-deeply-touched-impressed-by-duterte-during-manila-visit
Corrales, N. (2016, May 16). PH, China ink pact on building 2 Pasig River bridges. Retrieved June 1, 2021, from https://globalnation.inquirer.net/156784/ph-china-ink-pact-building-2-pasig-river-bridges
Dancel, R. (2016, July 9). Philippines versus China in the South China Sea: Timelines of dispute so far. Retrieved from The Straits Times: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/philippines-vs-china-in-the-south-china-sea-the-dispute-so-far
de Castro, R. (2009). The US-Philippine Alliance: An Evolving Hedge against an Emerging China Challenge. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 31(3), 399-423.
de Castro, R. C. (2014). The Aquino Administration's Balancing Policy against an Emergent China: Its Domestic and External Dimensions. Pacific Affairs, 87(1), 5-27.
de Castro, R. C. (2016). The Early Duterte Presidency in the Philippines. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 3(35), 139-159.
DFA-65th UNGA Session opens, President Aquino to address general assembly. (2010, September 16). Retrieved from Official Gazette of the Republic of the Philippines: https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2010/09/16/dfa-65th-unga-session-opens-president-aquino-to-address-general-assembly/
Dittmer, L. (1981). The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis. World Politics , 33, 485-515.
Downing, L. (2014, April 29). Obama says U.S. commitment to defend Philippines 'ironclad'. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-obama-idUSBREA3S02T20140429
Durani, S. (2018, August 24). The Role of Public Opinion in Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 2021, from Center for Strategic Analysis and Research - CESRAN: https://cesran.org/the-role-of-public-opinion-in-foreign-policy.html
Gangi, Y., & Ahmed, M. (2017, April). The Impact of International Relations on Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment: A Case Study of Sudan. Journal of Applied Economics and Business, 5(1), 46-66.
Gita, R. A. (2018, April 10). Duterte seeks partnerships between homegrown, foreign firms. Retrieved June 2, 2021, from https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/427674
Gita, R. A. (2019, April 26). Duterte's China visit yields $12B in business deals. Retrieved June 4, 2021, from https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1802981
Goldsmith, B., Horiuchi, Y., & Matush, K. (2021, June 7). Does Public Diplomacy Sway Foreign Public Opinion? Identifying the Effect of High-Level Visits. American Political Science Review, 1-16.
Heydarian, R. (2017). Evolving Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle: International and Domestic Drivers: Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle. Asian Politics & Policy, 9(4), 564-582.
Jennings, R. (2019, June 19). China, Philippines to Stay Friends despite Boat Collision in Disputed Sea. Retrieved from VOA News: https://www.voanews.com/east-asia/china-philippines-stay-friends-despite-boat-collision-disputed-sea
Kleinberg, K., & Fordham, B. (2010, October). Trade and Foreign Policy Attitudes. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 54(5), 687-714.
Kuik, C. C. (2016). How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN states’ alignment behavior towards China. Journal of Contemporary China , 100, 1-15.
McManus, R. (2018). Making it personal: The role of leader-specific signals in extended deterrence. Journal of Politics, 80(3), 982-995.
Mercado, N. A. (2019, September 1). After ‘productive talks,’ Duterte arrives in Manila after official visit in China Read more: https://globalnation.inquirer.net/179603/after-productive-talks-duterte-arrives-in-manila-after-official-visit-in-china#ixzz6wntiPtZo Follow us: @inquirerdotnet . Retrieved June 4, 2021, from https://globalnation.inquirer.net/179603/after-productive-talks-duterte-arrives-in-manila-after-official-visit-in-china
Merez, A. (2019, April 24). Courting China again: What’s on the line for Duterte in Beijing return. Retrieved June 4, 2021, from https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/04/24/19/courting-china-again-whats-on-the-line-for-duterte-in-beijing-return
Mogato, M. (2017, May 19). Duterte says China's Xi threatened war if Philippines drills for oil. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines-china-idUSKCN18F1DJ
Nitsch, V. (2005, November). State Visits and International Trade.
Obama cancels meeting with Philippines president after Duterte calls US leader ‘son of a b****’. (2016, September 6). Retrieved June 4, 2021, from https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/05/obama-cancels-meeting-with-philippines-president-after-duterte-calls-us-leader-son-of-a-b.html
Parameswaran, Prashanth. (2016, November 1). The Diplomat. Why the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte Hates America. Retrieved September 6, 2021, from https://thediplomat.com/2016/11/why-the-philippines-rodrigo-duterte-hates-america/
Permanent Court of Arbitration. (2015, July 13). Arbitration between the Republic of the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China. Retrieved from Permanent Court of Arbitration: https://pcacases.com/web/sendAttach/1304
Pesek, W. (2020, February 21). How Much More Can The Philippine Economy Endure From Rodrigo Duterte Before Growth Falters? Retrieved from Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2020/02/21/how-much-more-can-the-philippine-economy-endure-from-rodrigo-duterte/?sh=711dcc561b1c
Phillips, T. (2018, February 6). Photos show Beijing’s militarisation of South China Sea in new detail. Retrieved from South China Morning Post: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/06/photos-beijings-militarisation-south-china-sea-philippines
President Duterte’s State Visits to China and Brunei enhance trade ties, 22 Oct. 2016. (2016, October 22). Retrieved June 1, 2021, from https://pcoo.gov.ph/president-dutertes-state-visits-to-china-and-brunei-enhance-trade-ties-22-oct-2016/
Ranada, P. (2016, October 23). What Duterte accomplished in China. Retrieved from Rappler: https://www.rappler.com/nation/duterte-accomplishments-china-visit
Reuters Staff. (2017, November 12). Xi tells Duterte China will work to safeguard South China Sea peace. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-summit-china-philippines/xi-tells-duterte-china-will-work-to-safeguard-south-china-sea-peace-idUSKBN1DB0NZ
Schnabel, C. (2016, June 17). Beyond the numbers: How Aquino fueled the economy. Retrieved from Rappler: https://www.rappler.com/business/economy/president-aquino-economy-legacy
Schweller, R. (1994). Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. In International Security (pp. 72-107). The MIT Press.
Suarez, K. (2015, November 17). Obama arrives in Manila for APEC Summit. Retrieved from Rappler: https://www.rappler.com/world/asia-pacific/obama-arrival-apec-2015-summit
SWS July 3-6, 2020 National Mobile Phone Survey. (2020, July 19). Retrieved from Social
Weather Stations: https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-
20200719141007

The President’s official visits, September 2014. (2014, September). Retrieved from Official Gazette: https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/presidential-trips/official-visits-september-2014/
The President’s state visit to the People’s Republic of China, August 30 to September 3, 2011 . (2011, August 31). Retrieved from Official Gazette: https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/banner-artwork/the-president-state-visit-to-the-prc/
Tolentino, E., & Ham, M. (2015). The entrapment of asymmetry: the Philippines between the US and China. Bandung: Journal of the Global South, 2(20).
Tomacruz, S. (2020, January 23). Duterte rejects Trump's invite to attend special U.S.-ASEAN summit. Retrieved June 4, 2021, from https://www.rappler.com/nation/duterte-rejects-trump-invite-attend-special-us-asean-summit
US firms express interest in PH investments. (2015, May 7). Retrieved from Rappler: https://www.rappler.com/business/economy/us-businessmen-investments-philippines
Villanueva, R. E. (2018, April 11). ‘No progress without stability in Asia’. Retrieved June 2, 2021, from https://www.manilatimes.net/2018/04/11/todays-headline-photos/top-stories/no-progress-without-stability-in-asia/391819
Viray, P. L. (2017, November 15). Highlights of Trump's visit to the Philippines. Retrieved June 2, 2021, from https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/11/15/1759167/highlights-trumps-visit-philippines
Walt, S. (1994). Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. In International Security Vol. 19, No. 1 (pp. 72-102). The MIT Press.
Wang, H.-H., Wang, S.-S., & Tzeng, W.-F. (2020, June). Between a Rock and a Hard Place: How Lesser Powers Respond to Competing Great Powers in the Asia-Pacific Region. Issues & Studies, 56(3).
Wen, C.-C. (2020). The Philippines’ Perception and Strategy for China’s Belt and Road Initiative Expansion: Hedging with Balancing. The Chinese Economy.
Wolff, A. (2018, February 5). Paradigm lost? US Trade Policy as an Instrument of Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 2021, from World Trade Organization: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news18_e/ddgra_09feb18_e.htm
Womack, B. (2016). Asymmetry and International Relations. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Xi to Duterte: China doesn’t recognize pro-PHL ruling on South China Sea claims. (2019, April 26). Retrieved June 4, 2021, from https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/692533/xi-to-duterte-china-doesn-t-recognize-pro-phl-ruling-on-south-china-sea-claims/story/
Description: 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
108266011
Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108266011
Data Type: thesis
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES) ] 學位論文

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
601101.pdf1662KbAdobe PDF15View/Open


All items in 學術集成 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


社群 sharing