測量與比較艾奎諾與杜特蒂掌政下菲律賓在中美之間的外交抉擇行為

Abstract

在美中兩強的競爭中，亞太地區如菲律賓等小國必須在戰略上與大國結盟。在過去的幾十年裡，不同領導人領導下的菲律賓以各種的形式做到了這一點，本研究則著重於 Benigno Aquino III 和 Rodrigo Roa Duterte 兩位領導人的比較。簡而言之，前者選擇了一種平衡戰略，積極尋求與美國軍事和經濟的連結，並在與中國的領土爭端問題上採取激進的立場。相較之下，後者擱置了菲律賓與華盛頓根深蒂固的關係，轉而支持與鄰近霸權的經濟友好關係，並尋求南海議題的合作與和平解決。本研究透過總統的互訪做為政治因素，市場互動做為經濟指標，以及公眾輿論做為社會傾向，以衡量兩屆政府在這三個面向的異同。研究結果顯示，在所有這三個面向，Aquino政府都傾向於與美國合作，而Duterte政府相對於前任領導人所奉行的外交政策，則表現出對中國漸進的轉向。

Between the rivalry of the United States and China, small countries such as the Philippines must strategically align themselves. Over the past decades, the country under various leaders have done it one way or another. This study focuses on the alignment behavior that resulted from the leadership of Benigno Aquino III and Rodrigo Roa Duterte. The former chose a balancing strategy by actively pursuing military and economic ties with the United States and taking an aggressive stance on the matter of territorial disputes with China. In contrast, the latter sets aside the Philippines’ deeply rooted ties with Washington in favor of economic amities with its neighboring hegemon, and peace and cooperation in the South China Sea. The marked contrast of the two administrations are quantifiably measured in this study through presidential visits as political factors, market interaction as economic indicators, and public opinion as social leaning. The findings show that in all of these fronts, the Aquino administration favors cooperation with the United States, while the Duterte administration exhibits an obtuse pivot towards China relative to the foreign policies pursued by the previous leadership.