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Title: 莫迪的對中政策:轉移性外交政策之觀點
Modi's China Policy: Perspective of Diversionary Foreign Policy
Authors: 陳材瀚
Chen, Cai-Han
Contributors: 李明
Lee, Ming
Chen, Cai-Han
Keywords: 莫迪
Diversionary foreign policy
Sino-India relation
Border conflict
Date: 2021
Issue Date: 2021-12-01 14:45:36 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 轉移性外交政策是一種在領導人面臨國內動亂或者低民調之時會採取之策略。較為冒險或者攻擊性的外交政策方針可以創造「聚旗效應」,增強國內凝聚力並順勢讓領導者達成其政治目的。這樣的政策選擇常見於民主國家,通常發生在當權者需要贏得第二次大選或者鞏固自身領導地位、穩定支持率之時。
Diversionary foreign policy is a strategy which state leaders would adopt while they face domestic turmoil or low popularity. An aggressive or adventurous foreign policy would generate a rally-around-the-flag effect, enhance national cohesion so that they would achieve their own political goal. This approach of foreign policy has been widely seen in democracies, as a tactic to win the re-election or to secure their support base.
This article argues that the Modi administration applies such strategy to its China policy, especially demonstrated from three events taken place during his term, namely, Doklam dispute, Galwan Valley dispute and the revocation of Kashmir’s autonomous status. In order to understand the motivation behind the policy, this article will divide the whole policy-making process into two sections, and analyze them respectively.
The first section is the external factors, which consist of historical factors, China’s foreign policy and foreign stakeholders. The level analysis will be adopted while examining the next section: the internal mechanism. At an individual level, I touch upon the influence of Modi’s past experience and his foreign policy framework. As for the domestic level, both governmental agencies and domestic agents are discussed. I argue that although Modi attempted to adopt diversionary policies to win over support from Indian citizens, India’s economic dependence on China has restricted the approaches he can actually implement.
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