地方選舉「去政黨標籤化」的現象與詮釋：以2018年地方公職人員選舉為例

Abstract

政黨透過選舉動員爭取選民支持，幫助候選人贏得勝選和培養政治人才，厚植政黨永續經營的實力。在2018年地方公職人員選舉中，民進黨因在中央執政推動多項改革政策引發社會爭議，導致縣市長選舉的得票率下滑和席次大減 ; 反觀國民黨則在「討厭民進黨」的政治氛圍和由高雄市引爆的「韓流」效應助攻之下，縣市長的得票率和席次均有所斬獲。從政黨政治的觀點來看，此次地方選舉中，在兩大政黨此消彼長的表象底下，一個值得關注的議題是，臺灣在經歷三次政黨輪替後，政黨在地方政治的勢力是否產生變化？地方選舉中去政黨標籤的議題，在總體資料的分析視角下，其反映的政治意涵又為何？本研究主要以2018年地方選舉結果為例，綜合參採近10年地方選舉總體數據，以及交叉檢證同年與選舉同時舉行的全國性公民投票結果，說明如何輔以公投結果衡量選民的特定政黨認同（或不認同）及選民在議題上的意識形態。本研究利用描述性統計 ; 資料視覺化 ; （偏）相關統計 ; 區位迴歸 ; 主成分分析等方法，檢視國 ; 民兩大黨及無黨籍的候選人在各種地方選舉的得票差異性與關聯性。本研究發現，地方選舉中，越基層的選舉去政黨標籤化的現象越明顯，尤其是國民黨的標籤 ; 政黨標籤仍會壓縮無黨籍候選人的得票空間，但政黨標籤在選舉中也可能被隱藏化 ; 藉由選民的議題態度可輔助判斷其政治立場，建立「另類」的政治版圖 ; 除縣市長選舉外，選民對特定政黨的議題認同是重要解釋變數，越支持國民黨主張的地方則越不會投給無黨籍候選人。

Political parties enlist voter support from electoral mobilization. It not only helps the party`s candidate win the election but also cultivates political talents and builds the party`s strength for sustainable development. In the election of local public officials in 2018, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) led to social controversy due to the implementation of a few reform policies in the central government, which led to a significant reduction in the seats of mayors and county magistrates and a decline in the share of votes. On the contrary, the Kuomintang (KMT) benefited from the atmosphere of ＂Dislike DPP,＂ and the ＂Han Wave (韓流)＂ originated in Kaohsiung city, which made a huge gain in the mayor and county magistrate elections and got higher vote shares. From the perspective of party politics, beneath the surface of one party`s gain and another party`s loss in the local-level elections, one topic that deserves attention is whether the political power of the political parties in local politics has changed after Taiwan has experienced three times party alternations? And from the perspective of the analysis of the aggregate data, what is the political meaning of the topic of removing the party label in the local election? This study mainly took the 2018 local public officers` elections in Taiwan as an example. We collects the data of the local elections in the past 10 years and crosschecks the results of the national referendum held at the same time as the 2018 election. The methods which are used in this study to examine difference and correlation of votes gained by the DPP, KMT, and independent candidates in various levels of local elections included descriptive statistics, data visualization, analysis of (partial) correlation, ecological regression, and principal component analysis. The findings including: (1) the phenomenon of de-labeling of political parties in the lower-level elections is more obvious in local elections, especially the KMT label ; (2) while the party label will still reduce the votes of independent candidates, but the party label may also be hidden in the election ; (3) the voter`s attitude towards referendum issues can assist in judging their political affiliation and establishing an ＂alternative＂ political map ; (4) in addition to mayoral elections, the more support the KMT`s position, the less vote for independent candidates.