從現實建構主義分析1979年後沙烏地阿拉伯王國與伊朗伊斯蘭共和國之競逐

Abstract

1979年伊朗革命的爆發導致伊朗既有的巴勒維政權被推翻，引發後續中東地區政治格局一系列的轉變。隨著伊朗新政府外交路線轉向，沙烏地阿拉伯王國和伊朗的關係也急轉直下，兩國逐漸發展出在政治及宗教立場相對的競逐狀態。從1979年發展至今，兩國競逐程度與擴及領域都有日漸擴大的趨勢，今日其競逐也延伸至區域內的代理人衝突，兩國的緊張情勢又被形容為中東地區的冷戰。\n本文將以Barkin提出的現實建構主義（Realist Constructivism）分析沙國—伊朗競逐架構下的衝突面向及其形成軌跡，並依據現實建構主義框架內權力結構因素、規範結構因素，及兩因素的交互作用解釋沙國與伊朗之競逐發展。藉由以上三個面向的討論，可釐清沙國與伊朗於權力結構因素所生之衝突，以及教派主義對兩國競逐之影響。同時，權力結構因素與規範結構因素之交互作用亦能解釋兩國競逐自1979年至今之發展過程。通過前述探討，可發現於沙國—伊朗競逐中，權力結構因素與規範結構因素兼具影響力，且會以不同形式對競逐產生作用。前者以地緣政治影響力競逐為主軸，並衍生於安全及經濟面向之衝突；後者則可見兩國對內及對外政策輸出與教派主義之間存在相互強化之循環。此外，本文亦發現權力結構因素與規範結構因素間存在相互影響之特性，並導致兩國競逐規模自1979年起逐步擴大。針對以上發現，筆者認為沙國與伊朗政府應審慎考量以教派主義作為政治權力競逐工具之潛在風險，並減少對教派身份之強調。如此一來，可避免加劇區域不穩定性，亦可防止遜尼派與什葉派國家之衝突進一步擴大。

The outbreak of the Iranian Revolution in 1979 led to the overthrow of the Pahlavi regime in Iran, triggering a series of changes in the political situation of the Middle East. As the Iranian government`s foreign policies changed, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has also deteriorated. The two countries have competed in terms of political and religious aspects since 1979, and the scope of competition has also expanded. Today, some scholars even describe the Saudi-Iranian rivalry as the Cold War in the Middle East.\nThis article will use Realist Constructivism to analyze the Saudi-Iranian rivalry since 1979. Realist Constructivism contains the power structure, normative structure, and interaction of the two. In the discussion of the power structure and normative structure, we can explore the influence of material interest conflict and sectarianism on rivalry. On the other hand, the interaction of the power structure and normative structure accounts for the Saudi-Iranian rivalry evolution since 1979. This article argues that the power structure and normative structure are both influential to the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, and they will play a role in different forms. The former is dominated by the competition for geopolitical influence, while security and economic conflicts are derivative disputes. The latter affects the Saudi-Iranian rivalry by a mutually reinforcing cycle between the governments` policies and sectarianism. Additionally, the second argument is the existence of mutual influence between the power structure and normative structure, which has led to the outspread of rivalry since 1979. In response to the above findings, the author suggests that the Saudi and Iranian governments should carefully examine the potential risks of using sectarianism as a tool for political rivalry and reduce the emphasis on sectarian identity. In this way, it can avoid regional instability exacerbation and prevent the tension between Sunni and Shiite countries from further rising.