Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/139295
題名: 中國對巴西貿易及投資合作變遷之研究:中美貿易戰之影響
The Study of the Transition of China’s Trade and Investment to Brazil:Under The Impact of Sino-US Trade
作者: 胡宏洋
Hu, Hong-Yang
貢獻者: 鄧中堅
胡宏洋
Hu, Hong-Yang
關鍵詞: 巴西
中美貿易
投資策略
新古典現實主義
經濟國策
Economic Statecraft
Brazil
Sino-US Trade
Investment Strategy
Neoclassical Realism
日期: 2021
上傳時間: 1-Mar-2022
摘要: 本文應用國際關係理論中的「新古典現實主義」(Neoclassical Realism)及「經濟國策」(Economic Statecraft)等兩項研究途徑,作為分析中國與巴西的貿易與投資的變遷。首先,「經濟國策」乃一國決策界的菁英經過研擬,所釋出的一套與他國往來的經濟外交行為模式,有助於理解中國整體大戰略的一環。其次,「新古典現實主義」則完善了過去傳統的體系論,補充了國內政治因素對於體系的認知,利於本文解釋中巴外交決策的轉變。研究發現,北京當局在近年的對外宣傳上,對美國採取開放與不排斥競爭的態度,但也不會與美國進行積極的「抗衡」,顯然在某些特定的議題或領域上做出改變及調整現有的作法。然而,自 2017 年中國與美國爆發貿易戰以來,北京已認知到要調整經貿的比重,方能避開對美國的過分依賴,且有利於中國在全球各個區域經貿的推展。相對的,巴西與中國的關係上並非完全雙邊,中美關係的變化使巴西的外交立場頻繁出現兩難的抉擇。\n其對外政策需考量美國政治勢力的干預,也需考量國內政黨意識形態與利益團體的立場。近年來,中國調整對外經貿的比重已朝向與發展中國家接觸,其中在拉美地區又以巴西為重點,中巴的經貿合作與投資的比重因而不斷增加。相對的,中美之間的貿易比重反而下降。可見,中巴雙方的經貿戰略思維,已逐年轉變。\n基於此,巴西目前的對外政策傾向於採取「避險」策略,而非是在美、中之\n間進行選擇。中國對巴西則採取「適應」策略,視巴西為中國貿易與投資發展的新標的。事實上,中國將藉以「一帶一路」倡議為平台,擴大與巴西的合作,此舉將對中國在拉美地區經濟戰略的布局,大有助益。
Two approaches of international relations theory, namely neoclassical realism and economic statecraft are applied to analyze the transition of China’s trade and investment strategies to Brazil.First of all, "economic statecraft” istheeconomic diplomatic modepatterns developed by the elite of a country`s decision-making circle, which is helpfulin this papperto understand the grand strategy of China. Secondly, "neoclassical realism" improves the traditional system theoryand complementsthe cognition of the system byadding thedomestic political factors, which is conducive to explainthe transition relationshipsbetween China and Brazil.According to the observation, Beijing authorities haven’t ruled out the competition but have adoptedan open attitude towards the United States, however, they won’t contend actively with the United States. Obviously, China has adjusted in some specific issues. Since the Sino-US trade war in 2018, Beijing has realized that the need to adjust the economic and trade strategies without delay since these could not only avoid the excessive dependence on the United States but also facilitate China’s trade promotion inall regions around the world. Meanwhile, Brazilis confronting a dilemma in its diplomatic stance between China and the United States. The interference of American political forces and the ideology of domestic political parties with the positions of interest groups have all complicated Brazil’s foreign policy. Under this circumstance, China takes new adjustment to its investmentstrategy. Thus, China stressed a grater importance on increasing trade policy with developing countries, and Brazil has been the target one. The trade and investment between China and Brazil have reached a considerably higher demand; in contrast, it has declined with the United States in recent years. Undoubtedly, the tradingand investmentstrategy is changingbetween China and Brazil. Based on this, Brazil’s current foreign policy tends to adopt a hedging strategy, rather than making a choice between the United States and China. Ontheother hand, China has adopted an "adaptation" strategy towards Brazil, seeing it as a new partner for its trade and investment development.\nInfact,China will applythe “Belt and Road Initiative” as a platform to expand cooperation with Brazil, which will be great benefit to China’s economic strategy layout in Latin America.
參考文獻: 中文資料\n專書\n中國共產黨文宣部,2018。《習近平談“一帶一路”》。北京:中央文獻出版社。\n中國商務部、國家統計局和國家外匯管理局,2019。《2018 年度中國對外直接投資統計公報》北京:中國商務出版社。\n中華人民共和國國務院新聞辦公室,2018。《關於中美經貿摩擦的事實與中方立場》。北京:人民出版社。\n中華人民共和國國務院新聞辦公室,2019。《新時代的中國與世界》。北京:人民出版社。\n王義桅,2015 年。《「一帶一路」的機遇與挑戰》。北京:人民出版社。\n朱浤源,2009 年。《撰寫博碩士倫文實戰手冊》。臺北:正中書局。\n李楊著,2011。《“金磚四國”與國際轉型-BRICs 智庫巴西峰會的思考》。北京:\n社會科學文獻出版社。\n張亞中、張登及主編,2018 年。國際關係總論(第四版)。台北:楊智出版社。\n劉偉主編,2016 年。《改變世界經濟地理的一帶一路》。北京:龍時代出版。\n厲以寧、林毅夫、鄭永年等,2017。《讀懂一帶一路》。香港:中華書局。\n樓項飛著,2016。《中國與拉美國家相互依賴模式研究》。北京:時事出版社。\n專書譯著\nJames Dale Davedson 著,閻惠群譯,2013。《下一波繁榮靠巴西》。台北:大是文化。\nTheotonio Dos Santos(特奧 托 尼奧 .多 斯 桑托 斯 )著,楊 衍永 等譯,2016。\n《帝 國 主義 與 依附 》。北 京 :社 會 科學 文獻 出 版社 。\n亞歷山.布許(Alexander Bush)著,梁永安譯,2012。《巴西下個經濟強權》。台北:立緒出版社。\n黎安友(Andrew Nathan)、施道安(Andrew Scobell)著,何大明譯,2018。《沒有安全感的強國-從鎖國、開放到崛起、中國對外關係 70 年》。台北:左岸文化。\n諾貝爾託.博比奧著,陳高華譯,2012。《左與右:政治區分的意義》。南京:江蘇人民出版社。\n中文期刊\n尹繼武,2020/5。〈中國在中美經貿摩擦中的戰略決心信號表達〉,《外交評論》,2020年第5期,頁1-24。\n方旭飛,2020/10。〈巴西左右政黨的分野、變遷和前景〉,《拉丁美洲研究》,第42卷第5期,頁49-68。\n王明國,2020/8。〈從制度競爭到制度脫鉤〉,《世界經濟與政治》,2020年第10期,頁72-101。\n江瑞平,2020/12。〈世界百年變局與中國經濟外交〉,《外交評論》,2020年第6期,頁1-23。\n吳心伯,2020/5。〈論中美貿易競爭〉,《世界經濟與政治》,2020年第5期,頁96-130。\n吳洪英,2017/12。〈對拉丁美洲參與「一帶一路」的思考〉,《現代國際關係》,頁33-35。\n李慶四、邱龍寧,2020/4。〈美國“新門羅主義”拉美政策及面臨的挑戰〉,《拉丁美洲洲研究》,第42卷第2期,頁40-59。\n侯海麗、倪峰,2019/7。〈美國“全政府-全社會”對華戰略探析〉《當代世界》,2019年第7期,頁72-101。\n范建亭,2015/1。〈開放背景下如何理解並測度對外技術依存度〉,《中國科技論壇》,2015年第1期,頁48-50。\n徐遵慈,2020/3。〈美中貿易戰的進展、回顧與影響〉,《經濟前瞻》,頁11-16。\n馬科斯(Marcos Pires),盧上斯Lucas do Nascimento﹝巴西﹞著,2020/8。〈新門羅主義與中美拉三邊關係〉,《拉丁美洲研究》第42卷第4期,頁28-41。\n高長,2019/4。〈美「中」貿易戰及其對全球經貿衝擊〉,《展望與探索》,第17卷第4,頁88-106。\n郭語,2020/8。〈美國“美洲增長倡議”評析〉,《拉丁美洲研究》,第42卷第4期,頁20-32。\n郭潔,2019/12〈變化中的中拉經濟關係:多元化及其前景〉,《國際關係學報》117 (台北),第48期,頁37-60。\n陳子燁、李濱,2020/3。〈中國擺脫依附式發展與中美貿易衝突根源〉,《世界經濟與政治》,2020年第3期,頁21-43。\n章永樂,2019/10。〈“新門羅主義”的歷史淵源與政治實質〉,《國外理論動態》,2019年第10期,頁61-76。\n楊志敏,2019/4。〈經濟單邊主義的“復活”及應對-從拉美國家與美國貿易關係演進的視角分析〉,《拉丁美洲研究》,2019年第4期,頁60-77。\n楊建平,2015/10。〈中國對拉丁美洲直接投資之政治經濟意涵〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,第16卷第4期,頁165-216。\n廖舜右、蔡松伯,2013/9。〈新古典現實主義與外交政策分析的再連結〉,《問題與研究》,第52卷第3期,頁43-61。\n劉麗惠,2013/6。〈中國大陸追求穩成長製造轉服務、出口轉內需〉《貿易雜誌》,2013年6月,頁20-23。\n蔡昉,2020/9。〈中國經濟如何置身全球“長期停滯”之外〉,《世界經濟與政治》,2020年第9期,頁4-22。\n鄧中堅2019/12。,〈習近平時期中國大陸與拉丁美洲經濟關係之發展:地緣經濟之分析〉,《國際關係學報》,第48期,頁1-36。\n賴昀辰,2018/5。〈以美中貿戰思考世界貿易組織的角色與未來〉,《全球政治評論》,頁15-22。\n鍾欣宜,2019/3。〈「中國製造2025」之初探〉,《經濟研究》,第17卷第19期,頁348-371。\n鍾飛騰、張帥,2020/1。〈地區競爭、選舉政治與「一帶一路」債務可持續性-剖析所謂“債務陷阱外交”〉,《外交評論》,2020年第1期,頁20-64。\n羅豪、王曾琢,2018/12。〈美國對拉美援助政策析論〉,《國際研究參考》,2018年第12,頁13-19。\n網路資料\n2017/9/1。〈中華人民共和國2017年國民經濟和社會發展統計公報〉,《國家統計局網站》,<http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201802/t20180228_1585631.html>.\n2018/10/30。〈拉美國家紛紛向中國靠攏,美國這一次的挑撥毫無作用!〉,《每日頭條》,<https://kknews.cc/world/k9a6k5r.html>。\n2018/2/4。〈美國談中國:拉美不需要新的帝國強權〉,《BBC中文網》,2018年2月4日,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-42925243>。\n2018/7/14。〈摩根斯坦利報告來了:貿易戰對中國GDP的影響有多大〉,《財經網》,<http://economy.caijing.com.cn/20180714/4486122.shtml>。\n2019/10/19。〈一帶一路”與拉美十國調研報告〉,《新浪網》,<https://finance.sina.cn/china/gjcj/2019-10-19/detail-iicezzrr3320782.d.html?from=wap>。\n2019/10/23。〈當局忙美國大豆進口免稅配額但中國買家可能更愛巴西大豆〉,《鉅亨網》,<https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4399422>。\n2019/11/20。〈美中貿易戰夾縫求生巴西總統喜迎習近平〉,《民視新聞網》。<https://www.ftvnews.com.tw/news/detail/2019B20W0076>。\n2019/4/27。〈第二屆一帶一路國際高峰論壇〉,《BRF》,<http://www.beltandroadforum.org/BIG5/index.html>。\n2019/8/28。〈中美貿易戰:全球經濟將成最大的輸家〉,《BBC中文網》,2019年8月28日,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-49499922>。\n2020/10/22。美國砸10億美元要巴西電信業棄用華為、中興〉,《聯合新聞網》,<https://udn.com/news/story/6811/4954706>。\n2020/12/21。〈中美競逐是良機拉丁美洲應善加利用〉,《中央廣播電台》,<https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2087316>。\n2020/3。〈台經社論〉,《台灣經濟研究院》。<https://www.tier.org.tw/comment/tiermon202003.aspx>。\n2020/3/21。〈社論:5G霸權之爭美中都非贏不可〉,《經濟日報》,2020年3月21日,<https://udn.com/news/story/7338/5336332?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub7338_pulldownmenu_v2>。\n2020/7/25。〈蓬佩奧發表中國政策演說稱自由世界可再次戰勝暴政〉,《中央通訊社》,<https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202007245008.aspx>。\n2021/1/4。〈一帶一路引爆中國海外債務危機〉,《自由財經》,<https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3394050>。\n中國商務部,2019/12。《22019年全球價值鏈與中國貿易增加值核算研究報告》,<http://gvc.mofcom.gov.cn/Tjbh/inforimages/201912/2018jzlbg.pdf>。\n巴西台灣貿易中心,2006/02/10〈巴西原物料市場專題報導〉,《經貿透視雙週刊》,<https://www.trademag.org.tw/page/newsid1/?id=429554&iz=6>。\n白墨,2014/07/14。〈觀察:「金磚」能否砸出一個世界新秩序〉,《BBC中文網》,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2014/07/140714_brics_summit_analysis>。\n李哲全、王尊彥,2019/112。《2019印太地區安全情勢評估報告》(台北:財團法人國防安全研究院),<https://indsr.org.tw/Download/2019.pdf>。\n杜阿特(Luiza Duarte),2018/11/01。〈行還是右轉巴西新總統博爾索納羅的對華政策挑戰〉,《BBC中文網》,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-46043714>。\n周子欽,2020/2/7。〈區域整合脈絡下的「一帶一路」地緣政治經濟觀點〉,《台灣經濟研究院》,<https://www.tier.org.tw/comment/pec5010.aspx?GUID=9d24986e-0e42-4024-95ca-3eb2083553a5#>。\n周志偉,2020/4/14。〈巴西外交:意識形態化下的選擇尷尬〉,《每日頭條》,2020年4月14日,<https://kknews.cc/zh-tw/world/6rmxo6v.html>。\n張子青,2019/12/17。〈北京拓展拉美經貿合作輸出中國統治模式〉,《中央廣播電台》,<https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2045166>。\n張弘遠主持計畫,2018/5。〈美「中」貿易戰走向及其影響之研析〉,《亞太和平研究基金會》,<https://www.faps.org.tw/files/5846/86117B9A-E73D-4652-8979-29CE70942B1A>。\n陳吉喬,2020/11/17。〈習近平:中國願推進金磚五國疫苗聯合研發和試驗等工作〉,《聯合新聞網》,<https://udn.com/news/story/7331/5023171>。\n陳威華、趙焱,2020/08/09。〈巴西副總統莫朗:「巴西期待與中國加強戰略產業合作」〉,《Plataforma》,2020年8月9日,<https://www.plataformamedia.com/zh-hant/>。\n辜樹仁,2016/3/29。〈面對紅色資本歐美各自出招〉,《天下雜誌》,<https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5075451>。\n黃健群,2020/12。〈大陸推動RECP的戰略意涵〉,《中華民國全國工業總會》,<http://www.cnfi.org.tw/front/bin/ptdetail.phtml?Part=magazine10912-609-5>。\n趙穗生,2018/5/3。〈趙穗生:中國準備好取代美國領導的秩序了嗎?〉,《端傳媒》,<https://theinitium.com/article/20180503-opinion-zhaosuisheng-china-usa/>。\n盧國正,2015/01/08。〈海上絲綢之路:助推中拉經貿、文化合作與發展〉,《中國網》,<http://big5.china.com.cn/news/txt/2015-01/08/content_34508733.htm>。\n英文資料\n書籍\nDavid C. Kang, 2008. China Rising Peace, Power, and Order , New York: Columbia University Press.\nMacGregor Richard, 2010. The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers , New York: HarperCollins.\nMearsheimer, John J., 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton. Ripsman Norrin M., Jeffery W. Talianferro, and Steven E. Lobell,2016. Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics Oxford: Oxford University Press. Rosecrance Richard and Auther Asher Stein, 1993. The Domestic Bases of Grand Strategy, Ithaca and London: Columbia University Press.\nRosecrance Richard and Auther Asher Stein, 1993. The Domestic Bases of Grand Strategy (Ithaca and London: Columbia University Press.\nToole Gavin O’, 2007. Politics Latin America. London: Longman.\nWalt Stephen M., 1987. The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press. Waltz Kenneth N., 1979. Theory of International Politics, Boston: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.\n雜誌\nBrian Rathbun, “A Rose by Any Other Name: Neoclassical Realism as the Logical and Necessary Extension of Structure Realism,” Security Studies, pp. 294-321.\nEconomy Elizabeth C., 2018/5. “China’s New Revolution: The Reign of Xi Jinping,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 97, No. 3, pp. 60-74.\nGaltung Johan, 1971/6.“A Structural Theory of Imperialism,” Journal of Peace Research,” Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 81-117.\nGideon Rose, 1998. “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy,” World Politics, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 146-147.\nIturre Maite J. & Carmen Amado Mendes, 2010/3. “Regional Implications of China’s Quest for Energy in Latin America,” East Asia, No. 27, No. 2, pp. 127-143.\nHopewell, Kristen. 2019. “US-China Conflict in Global Trade Governance: The New Politics of Agricultural Subsidies at the WTO.” Review of International Political Economy 26(2): 207-231. Kitchen Nicholas, 2010. “System Pressures and Domestic Ideas: A Neoclassical Realist Model of Grand Strategy Formation,” Review of International Studies, Vol. 36, No. 1, 2010, pp. 117-143.\nKuik Cheng Chwee, 2008. “The Essential of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore’s Response to a Rising China,” Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2008, pp. 64-83.\nNye Joseph S.,1990/1. “Soft Power,” Foreign Policy, No. 80, p. 153-171.\nPatrick Stewart M., 2017/3-4. “Trump and World Order: The Return of Self-Help,” Foreign Affairs, pp. 52-53. Schweller Randall L., “Neorealism’s Status-Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma?” Security Studies, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1996, p. 90.\nSchweller Randall L., “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing,” International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2, 2004, pp. 159-201.\nSchweller Randall L., 1994/7. “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bring the Revisionist State 122 Back in,” International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 72-107.\nSchweller,Randall L. 2004/7-9. “Unanswered Threats: A Newclassical Realist Thiory of Underbalancing,” International Security , Vol. 29, No. 2 , pp. 159-201.\nStewart M. Patrick, 2017/3-4. “Trump and World Order: The Return of Self-Help,” Foreign Affairs, pp. 52-57.\n網路資料\nCompetition, but without Boundaries,” The New York Times. < http://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/world/asia/united-states-china-conflict.htm l>.\nDaniel W. Drezner, 2015/3/27. “Anatomy of a Whole-of-Government Foreign Policy Failure,” The Washington Post, < https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/03/27/anatomy-of-awhole-of-government-foreign-policy-failure/>.\nDeloitte, 2018. Global Powers of Retailing 2018, pp. 26-36. < https://qtxasset.com/cfoinnovation/field/field_p_fieles/white_paper/deloitte_cip2018-global-powers-retailing.pdf>.\nFreeman Carla P., 2019. “Constructive Engagement? The U.S. and the AIIB,” Global Policy, Vol. 10, No. 4, < https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12764>.\nLawrence Susan V. 2019/8/8. “U.S.- China Relation,” Congressional Research Service. <http://crsreports.congress./gov/product/pdf/R/R45898>.\nReilly James, 2013.“China’s Ecnomic Statecraft: Turning Wealth into Power,” < https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/chinas-economic-statecraft-turningwealth-power>.\nSmith Jeff M.,2016/5/23. “China’s Investments in Sri Lanka: Why Beijing’s Bonds Come at a Price,” Foreign Affairs, < https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2016-05-23/chinas-investments-sr i-lanka?cid=soc-tw-rdr>.\nThe White House, 2020/5/19. “United States Strategic Approach to The People’s Republic China,” < http://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content-upload/2020/05/U.S.- 123 Strategic-Approach-to-The-People-Republic-of-China-Report-5.24vl.pdf/>.\nWilson Elliot, 2018/1/4. “Bailed out, Yet Again-Mongolia Stares at a Brighter Future,” Euromoney, < https://www.euromoney.com/article/b16b9k4kq8460l/bailed-out-yet-again-mongolia-stares-at-a-brighter-future>.
描述: 碩士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
108260020
資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108260020
資料類型: thesis
Appears in Collections:學位論文

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
002001.pdf5.06 MBAdobe PDF2View/Open
Show full item record

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric

Altmetric


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.