The Panel Estimates of Socioeconomic Factors on Different Types of Crime in Brisbane, Australia

Abstract

This study uses a panel data of Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2; generally known as suburbs) in Brisbane regions of Australia from 2002 to 2010, to examine the effects of various factors on four categories of crime (including total crime rate, property crime, violent crime and drug crime). The results show that the conventional socioeconomic and demographic factors, such as ＂unemployment rate＂, ＂income＂ and ＂population density＂, have the expected influence on criminal behaviours. Moreover, the demographic factor ＂male25-29＂ had positive effect on drug crime possibly because of the highest percentage of illicit drug use in Australians’ late 20s. The demographic variable ＂male30-49＂, as an indicator of male population with a higher opportunity costs of committing crime, had the expected discouraging effect on violent crime but not on drug crime. Drug crime may be less age-specific probably due to addiction developing that continues through life. Furthermore, under Australia`s Youth Allowance policy, ＂youth allowance＂ variable, as an indicator of proportion of youth receiving allowance from government, showed its inhibiting influence on different types of crime, especially on drug crime. This finding implies that adolescents, who may be compelled to resolve to drug-related crime for money, could be restrained when they are financially supported and periodically supervised by the social welfare program of the government.

本研究透過經濟學的角度，以2002至2010年澳洲布里斯本149個行政區為分析對象，採用三類追蹤資料模型，探討各類社會經濟因素對四類犯罪（一般刑案、暴力犯罪、財產犯罪以及毒品犯罪）的影響。實證結果顯示，一般認知的社會經濟因素以及人口結構因素，像是失業率、收入水準以及人口密度，確實左右各類犯罪的動向。就人口結構而言，「25-29歲男性人口比例」增加，帶動毒品犯罪增加，可能跟澳洲吸毒人口以年輕人為主有關；「30-49歲男性人口比例」愈高，由於這類年齡層人口的犯罪機會成本較高，因此如同預期，降低社會中暴力犯罪的案件，但對毒品犯罪卻無制衡力，可能由於毒品成癮並不侷限於特定年齡。本文發現，在澳洲青年津貼政策之下，「青少年擁有零用錢比例」增加，能夠遏止各類犯罪，尤其是毒品犯罪。換言之，儘管青少年無法藉由工作來獲取所得，也有基本的所需，父母若沒給予零用錢來滿足孩子，他們只能藉由賺取非法利得來平衡他們的所需。如果青少年在基本需求上金錢無虞，並能受到政府社會福利定期監督，就能大幅減少他們年少犯罪以及後續犯罪的可能。希望藉由本文之結論與建議，提供政府相關單位在研擬犯罪防治上給予參考並有效解決犯罪問題。