「發展中國家」或「大國」？中國國家身分的共存與使用情境

Abstract

近年來隨著中國綜合國力的大幅提昇，學界普遍認為中國對於自我身分的定位已經從以往的「發展中國家」，慢慢地往「大國」傾斜。有些學者推論這個轉變更接近一個階段式的典範轉移，但同時也有許多文獻主張，這兩個身分常常以某種形式交融在一起。中國對自身的自我定位到底實際情況如何？又為何得以發生？這些困惑是本文的出發點。本文使用量化的電腦輔助文本分析建立主題模型，並搭配質化的概念分群和案例分析，分析中國2001年至2019年的外交部發言人講話。主要發現有三：（1）在經驗上驗證了中國的「發展中國家」和「大國」身分確實共同存在；（2）建構出中國兩個身分的特徵框架；（3）觀察到並擴展中國使用不同身分的時機和情境。基於以上發現，在未來我們將可以更好地判斷中國在什麼情況下會採用何種身分，對該身分框架出的有限行為做出合理的回應。同時本文也認為，既然中國擁有在不同情境下展現不同身分的彈性與需求，意味著兩個身分並存的情形在可見的未來很有可能延續下去。

Following the sharp rise of China`s comprehensive state power, scholars generally believe that China`s self-identification has shifted from ＂developing country＂ to ＂great power.＂ Some scholars argue that this is akin to a paradigm shift. Others disagree, believing that China mingles the two identification labels. What really is China`s self-identification label(s)? In what different context does China use these labels? These are two questions the authors try to answer in this article. We first construct a database from the daily briefings of the Spokesperson of Ministry of Foreign Affairs from the State Council of the People`s Republic of China during the period of from 2001~2019. We then apply the Computer-Assisted Content Analysis method to analyze data and build topic models. Our main findings are as follows: (1) we empirically verify the coexistence of two self-identifications: developing country and great power; (2) we are able to locate the main characteristics of two self-identifications; (3) we are able to observe the timing and situations where China uses different identification labels. The implication for this research is that we are now much better equipped to make an estimation on where and when China will use different identification labels, and in turn make reasonable responses. We also believe that since China can demonstrate different identification labels with reasonable flexibility, we have good reasons to believe that the use and coexistence of two self-identifications will continue in the foreseeable future.