運用引力模型比較轉軌國家之制度環境：以中國與俄羅斯的貿易便利性為例

Abstract

在資本主義全球化的運作體系下，貿易便利性對一個經濟體的發展優勢而言具有決定性的影響，而制度性因素對貿易便利又產生直接的效果。對於計畫經濟導向的轉軌國家，探索制度性變數與貿易行為的關聯性，在經濟轉型的領域是一個關鍵性的議題。 本研究從貿易便利性角度檢視制度性的變數與貿易量成長的關係，採用WEF推出的「全球貿易便利指數」（Enabling Trade Index, ETI）用以衡諸眾多制度性因素來提供研究分析基礎。 本研究建構了「引力模型」的分析模式，作為審視經濟體是否在貿易量的發展上受到制度環境因素的影響,據以理解不同國家雙邊貿易競爭優勢之所在。透過中國與俄羅斯兩國的進出口貿易量的統計，以引力模型比較了制度變數與進出口貿易的影響程度，探索在不同向度的制度性變數的表現上，中國與俄羅斯兩國之對外雙邊貿易的差異影響。

Since 1980`s, as a result of global economic shift, transition economies have been forced to undertake a series of economic reforms including economic liberalization, privatization and marketization. As the tendency of internationalization and regional integration is reinforced, global trade has been an issue strongly emphasized in a nation’s development strategy. Accordingly, while economic globalization is widely acknowledged, the connection between international economic system and institutional environment within a state is therefore exposed. This article takes China and Russia as research cases since both of them are countries from centralized government planned economies to capitalist market economy. Through a comparative study of Chinese and Russian institutional environments and analysis from gravity model, it illustrates the relationship between institutions and trade competitiveness.