結婚的人比較快樂嗎？婚姻對幸福感的異質性處置效應分析

Abstract

隨著臺灣社會結構及家庭規範的變化，晚婚及不婚逐漸取代普遍 成婚，進入婚姻不再是每個人必經的人生途徑。在這樣的家庭及人口 趨勢下，究竟婚姻是否能帶來幸福？而婚姻對幸福的影響是否又因人 而異？本文旨在探討婚姻對於年輕成年人幸福感的影響，並著重在婚 姻對幸福感的異質性處置效應分析（heterogeneous treatment effects）。 透過使用2011年與2017年自臺北市、新北市及宜蘭縣所蒐集之「臺灣 青少年成長歷程研究」（Taiwan Youth Project）長期追蹤資料，並運用 傾向匹配權數（propensity score weighting）處理進入婚姻之可觀察選 擇效應及估計婚姻對幸福感的異質性效應。研究結果顯示婚姻能顯著 提升個人的幸福感且此影響並非來自選擇效應，而是來自因果效應； 換言之，婚姻能促進所有男性及高結婚機率女性的幸福感，但對於低 結婚機率的女性則無顯著助益或僅具備消極意義的助益。簡單來說， 婚姻對於年輕成年人的幸福感仍是重要的社會決定因素，但僅限於男 性及進入婚姻機率高的女性。婚姻對進入婚姻機率低的女性之幸福感 的促進效應有限。政府在推動鼓勵婚姻的相關政策措施時，需瞭解何 者能從婚姻中獲益且應避免一體適用的政策解決之道。

With the transformation of social structures and family norms in Taiwan, universal marriage has been gradually replaced by the postponement and abandonment of marriage. Marriage is no longer a necessary and inevitable choice for individuals. Under this trend, it is therefore important to ask whether married people are happier than their unmarried counterparts and who benefits from marriage? This paper aims to investigate whether marriage confers happiness among young adults and who benefits from marriage in Taiwan. Specifically, this project will estimate the heterogeneous treatment effects of marriage on happiness, gauging who benefits from marriage. This paper utilizes the 2011 and 2017 Taiwan Youth Project (TYP), a longitudinal dataset collected in the northern part of Taiwan. Propensity score weighting is applied to address selection on observables and to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects of marriage on happiness. The results show that marriage has a positive effect on happiness, and this positive effect is not explained by selection effects. With regards to heterogeneous treatment effects of marriage, there are no heterogeneous effects of marriage on happiness for men. Marriage confers happiness for men, regardless of their propensity to get married. However, not all women benefit from marriage. Marriage only confers happiness for women who have a high propensity to get married but has limited benefits for those who have low propensity to get married. Simply speaking, the results suggest that marriage remains an important social determinant of happiness for young adult men and women who have high propensity to get married, but less so for women with low propensity to get married. Official policies that encourage marriage should target the right population and avoid a one-sizefits- all solution.