Uninvited Campaign Rally: Effects of Hong Kong’s Anti-Extradition Movement on Taiwan’s 2020 Presidential Election

Abstract

Party, candidate, and issue are undoubtedly the most frequently cited elements in electoral studies. All three, especially party system and issue debates, often reflect and cut along the main social and political cleavages in a society. However, the classic Michigan model and social cleavage theory may overlook the influence of events beyond the country’s border. It is curious that recent literature began to recognize subtle foreign intervention through internet and social media, yet few pay enough attention to the possible effects of intensively reported external events on domestic politics and their interactions. This study fills this void by studying an Asian new democracy and examining how events hundreds of miles away can send shock waves to impact, if not to reverse, the domestic public mood. We examine the effects of Hong Kong’s anti-extradition movement in 2019 on Taiwan voters’ views of cross-strait relationship, especially the stands on Taiwan independence vs. unification with China. We utilize the unique face-to-face survey panel data collected by the Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research (TIGCR) at the National Chengchi University from 2018 to 2020 (TIGCR-PPS 2018, 2019 & 2020) to measure the stability and change of independence-unification views in Taiwan during the 2019 campaign period. We find that the shift of general public’s attitude in this long-existing political cleavage on cross-strait relations indeed accounts for Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election results.