Why Hedging Is Not Easily Attainable-Taiwan`s Strategic Policy Options Amidst US-China Competition

Abstract

Since the election of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, cross-Strait relations have fallen into a cold impasse and may be leading to a stage of hot confrontation. As a lesser power caught in between China–U.S. power competition, why hasn’t Taiwan adopted a consistent hedging strategy in keeping with its interests as the majority in Taiwan favor the status quo? This paper argues that Tsai’s strategic policies face great constraints in either hedging or rolling back previous positions. While the democratic process is an intervening variable affecting Taiwan’s options, changes in the strategic preferences of great powers have conditioned Taiwan’s policy measures. Taiwan’s balancing options have been blocked by China’s unilateral pull-and-push mechanisms with the intent to lure it toward a bandwagoning relationship. Taiwan’s military balancing options are not only facing increased costs imposed by China but are also contingent on U.S. policy as it attempts to manage the country’s rise. Perceptions of China within the United States affect how much balancing Taiwan is able to conduct against China. These external influences have spilled over into domestic politics in Taiwan, increasing divisions among political groups and raising domestic obstacles that challenge the legitimacy and implementation of Tsai’s policies.