數位支付與國際貿易

Abstract

本文利用2014年與2017年共兩年，107個國家所組成之追蹤資料模型進行貿易實證研究。實證結果顯示一般化的貿易引力模型，以混合迴歸模型與固定時間效果模型分析下，出口國的數位支付使用比例愈高，會使得雙邊貿易流量顯著地提升。另一方面，我們利用隨機邊界模型衡量出潛在的貿易流量，並進一步分析每一成對樣本國家之貿易效率程度，實證結果顯示出口國的數位支付使用比例仍對於雙邊貿易流量具有正向顯著影響。最後，於消除多邊貿易障礙之影響下，若採用修正後的貿易引力模型，以固定時間效果模型進行分析，不論是出口國或進口國的數位支付比例皆會使得雙邊貿易流量顯著地提升。\n 除此之外，我們也探討數位支付使用比例與不同類型的國家族群所產生的交互作用與邊際效果。倘若國家區分為高所得與非高所得兩種類型，不論是出口國或進口國為高所得國家時，數位支付比例皆對於貿易流量有顯著地正向影響，且其增加幅度相較於非高所得國家來得高。倘若國家區分為內陸與非內陸兩種類型，不論是出口國或進口國為內陸國家，相較於非內陸國家，其數位支付對於貿易流量的平均邊際效果皆明顯提升。尤有進者，模型所估計出的非內陸國家之預期貿易流量平均值會高於內陸國家。

This article focuses on trade empirical research for the data from panel data model, whose data sources are from 107 countries in 2014 and 2017. The results show that within generalized gravity model based on the pooled regression and the time fixed-effect approaches, the higher the digital payment usage ratio of exporters, the more significantly the bilateral trade flows will increase. In addition, we also use the stochastic frontier model to measure potential trade flows, and further estimate the trade efficiency of each pair of sample countries. The empirical results demonstrate that the digital payment usage ratio of exporters still positively and significantly affects bilateral trade flows. After the elimination of multilateral trade resistance influence, if the modified gravity model based on the time fixed-effect model approach is adopted, the digital payment ratios of both exporters and importers will significantly increase the bilateral trade flows.\nOn the other hand, we further discuss the interaction effects and marginal effects of the digital payment usage ratios by clustering the income and location of the countries. Exporters and importers with high-income will have higher bilateral trade flows increase if digital payment usage ratio increases. Besides, landlocked countries will have higher average marginal effects on bilateral trade flows than non-landlocked countries if digital payment usage ratio increases. Last but not least, the expected average trade flows of non-landlocked countries exceed those of landlocked countries.