超越集體行動的邏輯：國內政治和與俄羅斯的地理鄰近性對北約責任分擔的影響

Abstract

北約責任分擔的問題在其成立後的70年後仍未解。依據Olson的集體行動邏輯（Logic of Collective Action, LSG），北約內各個成員國在政治和經濟上的差異，會促使小國「搭便車」。但近年來，似乎沒有「小國剝削大國」（exploitation of the great）的跡象。在2020年，有十個北約成員國的國防開支超過其GDP的2%，其中就有六個成員國是小國，而其中又有5個成員國在地理上與俄國有地理鄰近性。這些有達到北約國防開支目標的國家普遍將俄國視為威脅、普遍的支持北約、執政黨也一致的支持提高國防開支。本論文以LSG作為主軸，結合Waltzian的Levels of Analysis和Boulding的Loss of Strength Gradient來進行更全面的研究。本文的結論是：北約成員國如果將俄國視為威脅，也支持北約，且又與俄國有地理鄰近性，則該成員國越有可能會達到北約2%的標準。本文將以波蘭和德國作為研究案例來佐證其論述，也會個別討論英國和美國間的「特殊關係」來說明其對英國在國防開支上的影響。

NATO’s burden sharing problem is almost as long as its existence, it remains unresolved and still haunts the alliance to this day. Olson’s logic of collective action is the dominant theory on alliance burden sharing, which predicts that disparities in NATO members’ economies will incentivize smaller members to free ride. However, there has not been obvious signs of “exploitation of the great” in recent years. In 2020, of the 9 non-US NATO members that had exceeded the 2 percent pledge made in 2014 Wales Summit, of which, 6 were small economies. On closer inspection, 5 of the 6 small economies meeting the 2 percent target were all in close geographic proximity to Russia. In addition, member states that display higher threat perception of Russia, stronger support of NATO, and having cohesive ruling coalitions in favor of increasing defense spending, tend to have higher military expenditure. This thesis uses Olson’s Logic of Collective Action as its backbone, incorporates Waltzian’s Levels of Analysis and Boulding’s Loss of Strength Gradient (LSG) for a more comprehensive study. It concludes that NATO members with higher threat perception of Russian, strong domestic support of NATO, and are in close geographic proximity to Russia, are more likely to have higher defense expenditure, bringing it closer to the 2 percent pledge. This thesis will use Germany and Poland as case studies to help demonstrate its findings. It will also look at the exception, the United Kingdom, and its “special relationship” with the US.