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https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/140708| 題名: | 「一帶一路」倡議是否使參與國家更配合中國？：以柬埔寨、 寮國、汶萊為例(2013-2021) Does China’s BRI Make Participating Countries More Compatible with China? A Case Study of Cambodia, Laos and Brunei (2013-2021) |
作者: | 鄭紋圭 Jeong, Moon-Kyu |
貢獻者: | 薛健吾 Hsueh, Chien-Wu 鄭紋圭 Jeong, Moon-Kyu |
關鍵詞: | 「一帶一路」 外交政策轉變 柬埔寨 寮國 汶萊 |
日期: | 2022 | 上傳時間: | 1-Jul-2022 | 摘要: | 本文以柬埔寨、寮國和汶萊為研究案例，探討中國「一帶一路」倡議是否使參與國家更配合中國。東南亞以眾多發展中國家成為「一帶一路」倡議重點地區，其中，在中國「一帶一路」推行約莫九年期間，投資總額占據柬埔寨、寮國和汶萊三國國內生產總值極高。因此，本文將著重評估「一帶一路」是否拉近中國與其他國家之間的距離，並分析理論上最可能偏向中國的國家，是否在衝突議題上更傾向於與中國妥協。\n\n關於「一帶一路」是否能讓參與國家在衝突議題上更傾向於與中國妥協，在學界仍存在正反面爭議。本文發現，「一帶一路」的經濟力量使柬埔寨與寮國對外政策更倒向中國立場。柬埔寨參與「一帶一路」之後，在湄公河水壩建設議題轉而支持中國立場，並停止與美國的軍演合作，開啟與中國的大規模軍演。寮國也在參與「一帶一路」之後，逐漸遠離友國越南並親近中國，更在南海議題主張上由「多邊談判」走向中國立場的「雙邊談判」，在湄公河水壩建設議題更不加以考慮越南的反對立場。反之，雖然汶萊同樣在參與「一帶一路」之後，對中國經濟依賴大幅上升，但配合中國的程度卻沒有呈現躍升趨勢。汶萊在中國投資方面，部份表現出傾中姿態，但整體而言，在南海爭議與軍事安全議題上，仍與中國維持距離。關於配合程度不同的原因，本文認為，政權合法性的高低是解釋三國差異的關鍵，柬埔寨和寮國因為政權合法性因素較為不足，故比政權合法性較高的汶萊更需依賴中國「一帶一路」的經濟支援，因此也出現更配合中國的結果。 | 參考文獻: | 中文部分\n專書\n鐘延麟，2013。《文革前的鄧小平：毛澤東的「副帥」（1956-1966）》。（香港：香港中文大學。\n專屬翻譯\nShambaugh, David著，黃中憲譯，2021。《中美爭霸：兩強相遇東南亞》（Where Great Powers Meet: America and China in Southeast Asia）。台北：春山出版有限公司。\nPantsov, Alexander V. & Levine, Steven I. 著，林添貴譯，2015。《毛澤東：真實的故事》（Mao: The Real Story）。台北：聯經出版事業股份有限公司。\n伊藤公一郎著，王美娟譯，2018。《數據分析的力量：Google、Uber都在用的因果關係思考法》（データ分析の力 因果関係に迫る思考法）。台北：台灣東販。\n期刊論文\n曲博，2010/4。〈因果機制與過程追蹤法〉，《世界經濟與政治》，第4期，頁97-108。\n張執中，2021/12。〈美「中」競爭下的中共十九屆「六中全會」〉，《中共研究》，第55卷第04期，頁1-23。\n薛健吾，2020/4。〈中國「一帶一路」在第一個五年的進展與影響 (2013-2018)〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第21卷第2期，頁1-53。\n謝明勳、陳尚懋，2019。〈解析中國一帶一路和東南亞：自由貿易區 2.0?〉，《香港社會科學學報》，卷54，頁77-96。\n吳若瑋，2018/3。〈中國大陸倡設 「亞投行」的策略、發展與影響〉，《展望與探索》，第16卷 第3期，頁42-64。\n黃炎，2019。〈瀾滄江-湄公河流域水資源國際合作的動因、基礎與路徑選擇〉，《國際法研究》，第2期，頁50-62。\n阮功松，2019/9。〈舊情還是新歡？中國經濟勸誘對寮國的越南政策之影響〉，《東亞研究》，第五十卷第二期，頁117-158。\n李傑清，2016/12。〈台籍電信詐欺嫌犯在第三國被遣送中國大陸案之爭議〉，《刑事政策與犯罪研究論文集》，第19集，頁37-55。\n宋燕輝，2016/8。〈「南海仲裁案」各方反應與可能影響〉，《展望與探索》，第14卷 第8期，頁10-17。\n聶德寧，2008。〈中國與汶萊經貿關係發展的現狀與前景〉，《南洋問題研究》，第四期（總第136期），頁32-40。\n網際網路\n中央社，2021/1/12。〈習近平再提百年未有變局論點 稱時勢在中國這邊〉，《聯合新聞網》，<https://udu.com/news/story/7331/51679803>。\n中華人民共和國國務院，2017/4/25。〈推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和 21 世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與行〉，《人民網》， <http://ydyl.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2017/0425/c411837-29235511.html >。\n推進一帶一路建設工作領導小組辦公室，2021/12/31。〈已同中國簽訂共建「一帶一路」合作文件的國家一覽〉，《一帶一路網》，<https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/xwzx/roll/77298.htm>。\n韓潔、熊爭艷，2015/4/16。〈五大洲57個國家成為亞投行意向創始成員國〉，《人民網》，< http://military.people.com.cn/BIG5/n/2015/0416/c172467-26851931.html>。\n中華民國經濟部國家貿易局，2022/4/23。〈我國對中國大陸（含香港）進出口統計〉，《經濟部國家貿易局網站》，<https://www.trade.gov.tw/Files/PageFile/516662/%E6%88%91%E5%9C%8B%E5%B0%8D%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E5%A4%A7%E9%99%B8%E5%90%AB%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E5%87%BA%E9%80%B2%E5%8F%A3%E7%B5%B1%E8%A8%88.pdf>。\n中華人民共和國海關總署，2022/1/18。〈 2021年12月進出口商品國別（地區）總值表（人民幣） 〉，《 中華人民共和國海關總署 》，< http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/302276/4127605/index.html >。\n中國交通建設公司，2022/4/1（檢閱時間）。〈公司簡介〉，《中國交通建設公司官方網站》， <https://www.ccccltd.cn/big5/gsgk/gsjj/201308/t20130831_15496.htm>。\n新華社，2018/7/17。〈財經觀察：「一帶一路」建設助柬埔寨打造立體交通網〉，《中華人民共和國中央政府官網》，<http://big5.www.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.gov.cn/xinwen/2018-07/17/content_5307210.htm>。\n張信鳳、常紅，2021/2/18。〈中國駐柬埔寨使館駐西港領辦建館工作組慰問華電西港項目員工〉，《人民網》，< http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2021/0218/c1002-32030909.html>。\n中國國務院國家國際發展合作署，2021/1/10。〈「新世代的中國國際發展合作」白皮書解讀〉，《新華網》，<http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2021-01/10/c_1126965790.htm>。\n呂伊萱，2017/2/7。〈柬埔寨「全境禁台灣國旗」外交部：沒有評論〉，《自由時報》，<https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/1967021>。\n劉淳如，2009/12/20。〈柬埔寨遣返20名尋求庇護新疆維吾爾人〉，《Newtalk新聞》，< https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2009-12-20/2676>。\n莉雅，2019/9/5。〈我們不受任何人主導:柬國防官員接受VOA專訪談中柬軍事合作〉《美國之音》，<https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-Cambodia-us-20190822/5070243.html>。\n海倫、王南、鄧志達，2015/6/6。〈南中國海大事記〉，《美國之音》，< https://www.voachinese.com/a/south-china-sea-timeline-20121120/1549040.html >。\n陳政錄，2019/1/24。〈新南向碰壁 柬埔寨首相再提「一中原則」嗆：不讓台設代表處〉，《ETtoday新聞雲》，<https://www.ettoday.net/news/20190124/1364465.htm>。\n盧伯華，2020/2/6。〈疫情蔓延之時 柬埔寨總理洪森訪問大陸 習近平：患難見真情〉，《中時新聞網》，<https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200205005355-260408?chdtv>。\n中華民國經濟部國家貿易局，2019/9/3。〈寮國國家檔〉，《中華民國經濟部國家貿易局網站》，<https://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeid=45&pid=327702>。\n齊瀟涵，2012/12/14 。〈寮國要當中國的「四好」鄰居〉，《環球網》，<http://world.huanqiu.com/depth_report/2012-12/3378843_2.html>。\nThe New Lens，2021/3/18。〈寮國龍坡邦水壩起步賣電生意，中國將掌握輸電網絡25年〉，《The New Lens》，<https://www.thenewslens.com/article/148584/fullpage >。\n駐越南台北經濟文化辦事處，2021/3/25。〈寮國國情簡介〉，《駐越南台北經濟文化辦事處網站》，<https://www.roc-taiwan.org/vn/post/4673.html>。\n陳彥霖，2018/2/2。〈一路向南 汶萊：東南亞小而富裕的神祕國家，無法永遠依靠石油資源〉，《自由時報》，<https://talk.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/2330360>。\n吳明澤，2018/3。〈兩岸經濟依賴度之研究〉，《行政院大陸委員會委託研究》，頁1-150，< https://ws.mac.gov.tw/001/Upload/295/relfile/7845/72795/b247bd00-69a5-4a01-95ab-9cc22b39cabe.pdf>。\n呂嘉鴻，2022/1/13。〈RCEP正式生效：中國主導亞太區域經濟的機會與台灣的挑戰〉，《BBC中文網》，<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-59964200>。\n英文部分\n專書\nMearsheimer, John J. & Glenn, Alterman. 2001. 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資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109260026 | 資料類型: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 002601.pdf | 13.83 MB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open |
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