外交承認轉變對政治及經濟發展的影響：巴拿馬、薩爾瓦多和哥斯大黎加三國的個案研究

Abstract

中國毋庸置疑的茁壯及其在世界上與日俱增的影響力，使得與臺灣有邦交關係的發展中國家轉移甚或考慮將外交關係由臺灣轉向至中國一事具備十足的吸引力。愈來愈多的研究試圖分析與中國建立外交關係對這些國家發展之影響，而文獻多著重於中國對非洲國家發展的影響。本文採取質性研究方法與不連續回歸設計，展示外交承認從臺灣移轉至中國對拉丁美洲國家政治及經濟發展的影響。為此，本研究分析了對巴拿馬、薩爾瓦多以及哥斯大黎加特定三國的影響；這三個國家所以中選，不僅因過往必須同臺灣具外交關係爾後轉向中國，同時也因三國間相似的條件。文中分別使用六項變數衡量對政治發展的影響和四項變數衡量對經濟發展的影響，研究發現外交承認轉移至中國對各國的結果是大相逕庭。就巴拿馬而言，對政治發展產生負面影響，但對經濟發展則有正面影響；薩爾瓦多方面，雖同樣對政治發展有著負面影響，經濟發展卻毫無影響；最後是哥斯大黎加，該國政治發展完全沒有影響，對其經濟發展則是負面影響。

China’s undeniable growth and its increasing influence around the world has made it very attractive for small developing countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan to shift or consider shifting their diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China. There has been increasing studies performed trying to analyze the effect that establishing relations with China has on these countries’ development. The literature focuses mostly on China’s effect on African countries’ development. Using a qualitative approach and regression discontinuity as a method, this research demonstrates the impact that shifting diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China has on Latin American countries’ political and economic development. To do so, the research analyzes the impact in three specific countries, Panama, El Salvador, and Costa Rica. These three countries were selected not only because they needed to be countries that had relations with Taiwan and shifted to China, but also because of their similar conditions. It uses six variables to measure the impact in the political development and four variables to measure the impact in the economic development of these countries. The research shows that the impact of shifting diplomatic recognition to China is different in each country. In Panama, it had a negative impact in the political development, but a positive impact in the economic development. In El Salvador, it also had a negative impact in the political development, but it had no impact at all in the economic development. Lastly, In Costa Rica, there was not an effect at all in the country’s political development, and there was a negative impact in its economic development.