台灣民眾的美中盟友選擇

Abstract

美中關係轉向成彼此相互競爭後，台灣在美中台三角關係中的位置也隨之變化。過往對於國家盟友選擇的研究多從國家的視角來切入，較少以民眾作為出發點，去瞭解民眾對於盟友選擇的觀點，本研究以個體的民意調查資料，探索台灣民眾在當前時空背景下，會如何選擇他們的盟友。從國家安全、經濟利益、國際強權認知與政治態度此四大層次來分析民眾的盟友選擇之因素，並以二分勝算對數模型進行相關分析，探討在四個層次中，民眾的認知態度與盟友選擇之間的關聯。研究發現前述因素在民眾的盟友選擇上具有明顯的影響力，在國家安全與經濟利益上，認知態度偏向美國者，會有較高機率選擇美國為盟友；認知態度偏向中國者，則有較高機率選擇中國；在國際強權的層面上，認為美國較為強大者傾向選擇美國為盟友，認為中國較為強大者則傾向選擇中國為盟友；在政治態度層面上，民眾的統獨偏好偏向獨立者，有較高機率選擇美國為盟友。本文研究發現台灣民眾的認知態度在一定程度上呼應了以國家為中心的國關理論觀點，而民眾心中的盟友選擇偏好，也說明台灣民意也是對國家的對外政策有所想法，進而補充民意對盟友選擇的相關研究。

As the U.S.-China relationship has become increasingly competitive with each other, Taiwan`s position in the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangular relation has also changed. Previous studies on the ally choice have focused on the perspective of the state, but seldom on the perspective of the public. This thesis uses public opinion survey to explore how the Taiwanese choose their allies in the changing U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. It proposes factors at four levels are of special importance, they are national security, economic benefits, perception of international power, and political attitudes. Then a binomial logistic regression model is used to analyze the relationship between people`s perceptions and attitudes toward these factors and their choice of allies. The findings have indicated that Taiwanese’s different perceptions and attitudes toward the aforesaid factors would significantly influence their choice of ally. Namely, Taiwanese who believe the US will be more contributive to Taiwan’s security and economic benefits tend to choose the US as an ally over China as contrast to those believe China is not threatening Taiwan and China is important for Taiwan’s economy. Also, Taiwanese who perceive the US is stronger than China now and twenty years later tend to favor the US as an ally over China. In terms of political attitudes, those Taiwanese with a preference for independence are more likely to choose the US as their ally instead of choosing China. By extension, these findings suggested the Taiwanese’s perceptions and attitudes have echoed the state-centric perspective of international theory. Likewise, they will contribute to the understanding of how the public opinion relates to foreign policy and enrich the study of ally choice at the micro level in Taiwan.