2016年臺灣總統大選後對國內觀光旅館影響之研究—兼論2020年新冠肺炎疫情之影響效應

Abstract

本研究蒐集交通部觀光局行政資訊網站上2012年1月至2021年12月「觀光業務統計」中「觀光旅館營運月報表」之平均房價、客房住用數及住用率等資料為樣本，並透過設計差異中之差異法實證模型，探討2016年臺灣總統大選後及2020年新冠肺炎疫情發生等兩事件對於國內觀光旅館之影響。\n在2016年總統大選事件後，實證結果顯示，該事件對於國際觀光旅館之平均房價具顯著負面影響；對於客房住用數有負面影響，但並未如房價影響顯著；對於住用率有正面影響效應，故住用率部分與本研究假說2016年總統大選後，會因陸客銳減影響，使觀光旅館住用率減少之結果不完全相同。\n此外，在2020年新冠肺炎(COVID-19)事件後，實證結果顯示，該事件對於國際觀光旅館之平均房價、住用率均具有顯著負面影響效應；對於客房住用數而言，雖然經實證分析統計結果，亦可見負面影響，但並不顯著，進一步應用差異中之差異(DID)迴歸模型分析，實證結果則顯示2020年新冠肺炎(COVID-19)事件對於國際觀光旅館客房住用數具有負面之影響效應。

This research collects the average room rate, the number of rooms occupied, and occupancy rate of the "Monthly Report on Tourist Hotel Operations in Taiwan " in the "Tourism Statistics" from January 2012 to December 2021 on the Taiwan Tourism Information Website as a sample. Furthermore, through the empirical model of the difference in difference method, the impact of the two events after the Taiwan presidential election in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 on domestic tourist hotels are discussed.\nAfter the 2016 Taiwanese presidential election, empirical results show that the event significantly impacted the average room rate of international tourist hotels negatively; it harmed the number of rooms occupied but was not as substantial as the average room rate. Moreover, it positively impacted the occupancy rate. Therefore, the occupancy rate is not the same as this research hypothesis: after the 2016 Taiwanese presidential election, the occupancy rate of tourist hotels decreased due to the sharp drop in tourists.\nAdditionally, after the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, empirical results show that the event had a significant adverse effect on the average room rate and occupancy rate of international tourist hotels; for the number of rooms occupied. Although the statistical results of the empirical analysis showed, a negative impact can also be seen. Although it is not significant. Utilizing applied the difference in differences (DID) method, the empirical results showed that the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the number of international hotel room occupancy.