電子商務對美國REITs市場的影響

Abstract

自網際網路越發普及及科技逐漸進步以來，人們的交易型態已有所改變，逐漸習慣利用電子商務進行購物，電子商務已形成一股趨勢，自從新冠肺炎於2019年底爆發以來，加速電子商務的成長，也影響不動產市場的不同行業。因此，本研究欲探討電子商務對於美國REITs市場的影響。首先本研究進行文獻回顧整理，並對於不同的REITs市場分別建立自我迴歸時間落差分配模型(ARDL Model)。\n本研究之研究範圍為美國，採用的應變數包括工業、基礎設施及購物中心REITs市場的報酬率；自變數則包括通貨膨脹率、M1貨幣供給額、美國聯邦基金利率、S&P 500股價指數報酬率、國內生產毛額、電商銷售額占整體零售總額之比率及疫情虛擬變數\n實證結果顯示同樣面臨COVID-19的風險，不同的不動產行業影響有所差異，疫情對於工業REITs市場為正向成長，對於基礎設施REITs市場未造成顯著影響，而對購物中心REITs市場則為負向影響。而逐漸興起的電子商務趨勢，引發對於倉儲物流、配送中心及電信塔等不動產需求上升，因此，工業、基礎設施REITs市場報酬率皆有所成長，而電子商務趨勢對於購物中心REITs市場則未如預期造成負面影響，顯示實體購物仍有其需求，並未完全為電子商務所取代。而美國聯準會(Fed)實施無限QE政策以來，市場資金充沛，因而M1貨幣供給額、S&P 500股價指數、國內生產毛額對於REITs市場造成正向顯著影響。然而，美國聯準會(Fed)長期實施貨幣寬鬆政策後也擠兌消費，因而發生「通貨膨脹的異象」，致使通貨膨脹率對於REITs市場皆未造成顯著影響。而美國聯邦基金利率對於REITs市場皆未造成顯著影響，顯示長期低利率政策的實施，亦未達到刺激經濟的作用。因而，未來政府制定相關政策，包括疫情、貨幣及財政等政策時，必須謹慎了解政策實施後之效果，並對於不同產業適時給予不同的補助，以因應衝擊。

The widespread use of Internet and the advancement of technology have brought changes to the transaction patterns of consumers. That is, people have grown accustomed to online shopping, making E-commerce gradually become the norm. Moreover, the outbreak of COVID-19 in late December 2019 has further fueled consumer E-commerce activity, which in turn has exerted influence on various sectors of the real estate market.\nIn response to this trend, this study aims at exploring the impacts brought by E-commerce on the REITs market in the U.S. Therefore, the literature review will be conducted first, followed by the ARDL models established for different REITs markets. In this study, the area of sampling is the U.S. Besides, reflecting the situations of the REITs market in the U.S, the dependent variables include the REITs market return from industries, infrastructure, and shopping malls. On the other hand, to indicate the economic impacts from E-commerce, the independent variables involve the inflation rate, M1 money supply, federal funds rate, S&P 500 index rate of return, gross domestic product, share of E-commerce to overall retail sales, and a pandemic dummy variable.\nThe empirical results suggest that even though faced with the same risk from the pandemic, different sectors of the real estate industry have bore dissimilar consequences. Firstly, the development of COVID-19 has been positively correlated to the industrial REITs market return, while that has been negatively correlated to the REITs market return from shopping mall. By contrast, no significant influence is found in the REITs market return from infrastructure. Secondly, in terms of the emerging E-commerce, it has boosted the demand for real estate establishment, such as warehousing and logistics, distribution centers, and telecommunications towers. The resulting development is the growth of the REITs market return from industries and infrastructure. However, inconsistent with our hypothesis, E-commerce has not yielded negative impacts on the REITs market return from shopping malls, which suggests that physical stores are still essential for retail.\nIn addition, due to the implementation of the unlimited QE policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the funds for market have proved to be abundant. Therefore, the M1 money supply, S&P 500 index rate of return, and gross domestic product have been positively corelated to the REITs market return. Nevertheless, the long-term monetary easing policy adopted by Fed has made the actual consumption of goods and services decline, which results in the “inflation anomaly”. Hence, no significant impact is found from the inflation rate on the REITs market return. Lastly, the federal funds rate also has not made any significant influence on the REITs market return, indicating that the monetary policy in a lower long-term interest rate environment did not stimulate the economy as expected.\nTherefore, this study concludes that policymakers in the future should take the potential results of implementation into consideration when formulating relevant policies, such as those responding to the pandemic, or monetary and fiscal changes. Additionally, it is also required for the government to provide timely financial subsidy to different industries, in order to cushion the blow from future crises or emergencies.