電子商務對店面租金的影響—以台北市為例

Abstract

於近年快速崛起的電子商務，乃一革命性的新型態購物模式，毋須親自採買便能取得商品的優勢也使電子商務成為少數倖免甚至受益於新冠肺炎疫情之佼佼者。然而，電子商務的成長是否會對實體店面租金造成影響，眾說紛紜。\n為辨認電子商務與店面租金之關聯性，本研究使用ARDL模型，對台北市的東區、西門與公館三處性質迥異的商圈店面租金進行量化分析，實證結果因商圈特性而各有差異：在電子商務方面，西門與公館商圈租金均受其負面影響，僅東區商圈未明顯受衝擊；於新冠肺炎疫情方面，東區商圈租金受其負向衝擊，公館商圈、西門商圈則未見源自疫情的顯著影響；在總體經濟方面，失業率與消費者信心指數可預測東區商圈店租，失業率亦可用以獲悉西門商圈店租走勢。有鑑於電子商務的成長乃是必然，對投資者、零售業者而言，辨認電子商務對店面租金的影響實屬必要，本研究之成果期能提供零售業者與投資人予以參考。

The rapidly emerging E-commerce has been recognized as a revolutionary consumption pattern over the past few years. One of its major advantages is to relieve consumers from the need for physical presence to a brick-and-mortar store, making E-commerce able to survive or even thrive in the aftermath of COVID-19.\nHowever, there are still conflicting opinions about whether the significant expansion of E-commerce has brought impacts on store rent. Therefore, with the aim of exploring the relationship between these two variables, “Auto Regression Distributed Lag” (ARDL) is adopted to carry out a quantitative analysis of three shopping areas with varying store rent – Eastern district, Ximen and Gongguan. The results show that significant differences can in fact be observed among these selected areas due to their own features. Firstly, in terms of E-commerce, its development is negatively correlated to the store rent in Ximen and Gongguan, while no significant influence in Eastern district is found. Secondly, even though the pandemic has not yielded serious influences on the store rent in Ximen and Gongguan, it has tremendously impacted that in Eastern district. Lastly, viewing the economic development as a whole, the changes of store rent in Ximen can be predicted by the unemployment rate, and that in Eastern district can also be predicted by both the unemployment rate and consumer confidence index.\nGiven that the growth of E-commerce is inevitable, it is of paramount importance for investors and retailers to recognize its impacts on store rent. Hence, the findings of this study can provide evidence-based references for practitioners in relevant fields.