臺灣各縣市人口結構對空屋率的影響

Abstract

近年來房價高漲，空屋數量卻不減反增，不免讓人好奇其背後成因為何。本研究主要為探討台灣各縣市人口結構中人口老化對空屋率的影響，運用行政院主計處及不動產資訊平台公開資訊資料，蒐集2011到2020年臺灣行政區域重新劃分後20個縣市之長期追蹤資料 ( 扶老比、扶幼比、產業結構-工業、產業結構-服務業、平均每人可支配所得、房價、住宅屋齡-30-40年、住宅屋齡-40-50年、住宅屋齡-50年以上 ) 共計11項變數，針對目前市場上存在的空屋進行分析。\n本研究考慮到空屋率可能會受到鄰近縣市影響而具有空間相依性，因此採用空間計量模型進行實證研究，實證結果指出，臺灣各縣市的空屋率存在顯著的空間相關性，其表示某地區的空屋問題可能會受到鄰近地區的影響而造成，另外，扶老比越高的區域，則因勞動人口流失，對空屋率則有正向顯著影響。

In recent years, housing prices have soared, but the number of vacant houses has not decreased but increased, which makes people wonder what is the reason behind it.\nThe main purpose of this paper is to study the effect of aging population on the vacancy rate in Taiwan, using public information from the Real Estate Information Platform of the Ministry of the Interior and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan to collect long-term tracking data ( old age dependency ratio, child dependency ratio, industrial structure-industry, industrial structure-service industry, average disposable income per person, housing price, residential house age in 30-40 years, residential house age in 40-50 years, residential house age over 50 years ) of 20 counties and cities in Taiwan after administrative divisions were re-divided from 2011 to 2020 , a total of 11 variables, to analyze the vacant houses on the market.\nConsidering that the vacancy rate may be affected by neighboring counties and cities and has spatial dependencies, this study adopts a spatial econometric model for empirical research. The empirical results indicate that there is a significant spatial correlation in the vacancy rate of various counties and cities in Taiwan, which means that the vacancy problem in a certain area may be caused by the influence of neighboring areas. In addition, areas with higher population aging along with the loss of labor force, have a positive impact on the vacancy rate.