抗衡中國:2016 年後日本與台灣中國政策的比較研究

Abstract

本研究為藉由應用 Walt 的威脅抗衡(balance of threat)理論比較日本和台灣對中國的政 策。近年來，中國對於改變東亞地區現狀的行動(例如軍事擴大、領土議題)愈加強烈， 美國和其他民主國家對於中國獨斷行為的批判也是日益漸增，尤其是日本和台灣，這 兩個相鄰的國家更是直接面臨了中國的脅迫。日本一直以來和中國有領土爭議，其中 包括釣魚臺列嶼(尖閣諸島)主權問題，而台灣和中國之間更有嚴重的主權爭議。這 些情況也使得不少人評論認為，日本的自民黨安倍政府及台灣的民進黨蔡政府出現之 後，對中國政策採取抗衡策略的聲音已逐漸崛起，不像是之前的政府嘗試與中國保持 溫和交往的態度。 本研究發現在日本安倍政府及台灣蔡政府上台之後都是採取對中國抗衡的策略，但執 行方式互有異同。日本和台灣都藉由加強各自的國防能力以及和美國深入友好關係來 對抗中國，然而，由於台日兩國的外交地位及國內對中國的觀點不同，日本目前以提 升和美國以外的國家的友好關係，並且呼籲他們共同對抗中國為主要作法;而台灣則 主要是與美國深化關係同時呼籲和中國以溝通的方式進行。不論哪種方式，這樣的發 展也受到一個重要因素的影響，即美國對中國日益強硬的態度對於日本和台灣增強抗 衡中國政策的採行有重要的鼓舞作用。

This paper compares Japan’s and Taiwan’s China policies since 2016 by applying Walt’s balance of threat theory. In recent years, China’s actions to change the status quo (e.g., military expansion, territorial disputes) in the East Asian region have become more intense day by day. The U.S. and other democratic nations have been increasingly critical of China’s assertiveness. In particular, Japan and Taiwan, two neighboring countries, have seen their security threatened by China’s behavior. Japan has territorial disputes with China, including the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands issue, and Taiwan has a serious issue with China regarding its sovereignty. Under these circumstances, it is often argued that after the LDP’s Abe administration in Japan and the DPP’s Tsai administration in Taiwan, the balancing tone has been strengthened, unlike their predecessors who maintained a moderate and engaged China policy.\nThis paper finds that both Japan after Abe and Taiwan after Tsai chose to take a balancing strategy toward China. Both Japan and Taiwan are opposing China by strengthening their national defense capabilities and deepening relations with the U.S. However, due to differences in diplomatic positions and domestic opinions on China, Japan is strengthening relations with countries other than the U.S. and calling for cooperation to counter China, while Taiwan is deepening relations mainly with the U.S. and only calling for dialogue with China. Either way, the U.S.’s increasingly hardline attitude toward China has had a significant impact on that Japan and Taiwan have strengthened balancing tone on their China policies.