重審印度尼西亞一帶一路項目：2015年雅萬高鐵授予中國決策分析

Abstract

印度尼西亞是一個新興經濟體，為世界第三大民主國家和世界第四人口大國。然而，該國一直在與不完善的交通基礎設施作鬥爭，這些不完善的基礎設施帶來了各種經濟挑戰，例如價格平價、爪哇島與邊境、最外圍和最不發達地區之間的收入差距。據世界銀行統計，自2004年以來，印尼交通基礎設施的缺乏導致其GDP損失了1%。因此，改善基礎設施來推動發國民經濟增長成為必要。為此，印度尼西亞以包容性、無歧視的理念歡迎國際合作，儘管政治制度存在差異也不排斥。冷戰結束後，國際世界秩序似乎再次分裂為兩大陣營：美利堅合眾國及其盟國和中華人民共和國及其盟國，成為相互競爭的兩大經濟體。印度尼西亞一直以自己是一個不結盟國家而自豪，願意與任何一方享有經濟合作關係。例如，2015年，新當選的總統佐科·維多多不顧外界對「一帶一路」的各種負面評價，決定歡迎此中國倡議的大型項目。佐科·維多多通過加強與多方國家的經濟合作，確保印尼的外國直接投資（FDI）來源多元化。在「一帶一路」倡議下，印度尼西亞和中國同意於 2015 年建設雅加達-萬隆高鐵，以連接該國兩個最大的經濟中心。儘管該項目是前政府時期由日本國際協力機構（JICA）策劃和研究，佐科考量印尼與中國雙方國家利益，將此歸功於中國。由於「一帶一路」的可信度、環保問題、缺乏可行性研究以及其他比高鐵更緊迫的社會問題，建設高鐵的決定在印尼國內引起了爭議。此外，這一決定還引起了與日本的緊張關係。因為日本完成了可行性研究，並與前政府就高鐵建設達成協議。印尼發展國民經濟的歷程一直備受關注，因為儘管並非各方都對印尼與各陣營國家交好的的政策決定感到滿意，他們仍保持良好關係。因此，本文旨在對「一帶一路」倡議下印尼與中國在雅加達-萬隆高鐵項目上的經濟合作進行分析。作者運用羅伯特·普特南的雙層賽局理論(two-level games theory)，通過分析國內層面和國際層面的談判進程，回答了印尼如何以及為何將項目授予中國而不是日本的研究問題。印尼做出這一決定的因素有哪些？高鐵建設將在多大程度上有利於印尼經濟？最後「一帶一路」對印尼經濟的前景和挑戰是什麼？本研究將採用質化方法，利用一手資訊、相關文獻中的二手資料以及選定的研究案例，對研究主題進行整體分析。 本文的研究結果如下：1）佐科作為首席談判代表及其所擁有之政治工具在國內和國際舞台的談判中發揮了至關重要的作用。他設法滿足了公眾的需求，並通過讓合資企業（KCIC）取代印尼政府作為該項目的擔保人，來最大限度地降低自身在高鐵談判方面的風險。 2）印尼將高鐵建置權授予中國，因為中國的提案符合佐科的發展戰略願景：技術轉讓、企業對企業模式（B2B）、融資機制（合資企業-KCIC）。3）「一帶一路」大幅增加了中國對印尼的直接投資，使中國成為印尼最大的貿易夥伴。中國也成為支持印尼發展目標，取代國際發展援助的替代方案。

Indonesia is an emerging economy with the third-biggest democracy and the fourth-most populous country in the world. However, the country has been struggling with unsophisticated transportation infrastructures that create various economic challenges such as price parity, gap income between Java Island and frontier, outermost and least developed regions. According to the World Bank the lack of Indonesia’s transportation infrastructure contributed to a one percent loss of its GDP since 2004. Therefore, infrastructure development is needed to boost its national economic growth. In so doing, Indonesia welcomes international cooperation inclusively without discrimination despite political system differences. The international world order seems to be divided once again after the cold war into two great powers, the United States of America (USA) and allies and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and allies as the two world’s largest economies who are competing against each other.\nIndonesia has always been proud to be a non-block country and enjoys economic partnership from any parties. For instance, in 2015, the newly elected president Joko Widodo decided to welcome a mega project from China’s Belt and Road Initiatives regardless of various negative images and pessimisms towards BRI. Jokowi ensures that Indonesia’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sources have to be diversified by strengthening economic cooperation with any countries. Under BRI, Indonesia and China agreed to construct Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail in 2015 as an effort to connect the two largest economic hubs of the country. Although the project had been planned and studied by Japan’s JICA under the previous administration, Jokowi awarded it to China due to considerations of complementary goals between the national interest of Indonesia and China. Indonesia’s decision to construct HSR itself has caused debate domestically due to the BRI credibility, environment issues, lack of feasible studies and other urgent social issues that are more urgent than HSR. Moreover the decision also caused tension with Japan as Japan had conducted feasibility studies and had a deal with the previous government for the HSR construction. Indonesia’s journey on developing its national economy has been a spotlight to many as the government is able to manage good relations with many parties despite not all of them are satisfied by Indonesia`s policy decision. Therefore, this thesis tends to provide an analysis of the Indonesia and China economic cooperation on the High-Speed Rail Jakarta-Bandung project under the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI). The author utilizes Robert Putnam`s two-level games theory to answer the research question of how and why Indonesia awarded the project to China over Japan by analyzing the negotiation’s process at both domestic and International level. What are the factors of Indonesia`s decision and to what extent the HSR construction will benefit Indonesia’s economy and lastly what are the prospects and challenges of BRI to Indonesia’s economy. Qualitative method will be used in this research with primary and secondary data from related literature as well as a chosen study case to provide a holistic analysis regarding the research topic. The findings of the thesis are as follows: 1) Jokowi as a chief negotiator and his political instruments played an essential important role during the negotiation on both domestic and international stage. He managed to answer the needs of the public as well as minimized the risk from China regarding HSR negotiations by securing the Joint Venture (KCIC) as the guarantor of the project instead of the government. 2) Indonesia awarded the HSR to China as China’s proposal serves the vision of Jokowi’s development strategy; technology transfer, business to business model (B2B), Funding mechanism (Joint Venture-KCIC). 3) BRI has significantly increased China’s FDI to Indonesia, made China as the largest trading partner and became an alternative of international development aid to support Indonesia’s development goals.