共黨統治下大規模反抗運動的形成與共黨可能採取的預防策略：理論探討

Abstract

本文的目的是解釋共黨統治下爆發大規模反抗運動的原因與共黨可能採取的預防措施。筆者主張反抗運動的爆發受到結構因素與催化因素的綜合影響。前者累積社會不滿，後者則將不滿轉化為具體抗議行動。在共黨統治下，將社會不滿轉化為反抗行動的催化事件可能是異議團體運作的結果，或是「非政治性偶發事件」。一旦共黨處置失當，「非政治性偶發事件」就會淚發反抗運動，使得反抗運動得在缺乏資源、領神和經織的情況下爆發。根據這個結論，筆者推論出共黨為防反抗運動可能採取的措施為：一、癱瘓新興的自主性群眾團體；二、謹慎而技巧地因應任何會造成群眾集的「非政治性偶發事性」，防止這些事件轉變為政治性的示威抗議。

The purposes of this study are to provide a theoretical answer to the question of the causes of popular uprising under communist rule and to predict the possible methods communist parties may adopt to prevent such uprisings. The author argues that the formation of popular uprisings in communist countries results from the joint effects of structural and catalytic factors. The former causes social discontent while the latte transforms social discontent into political protest. In communist countries, the catalytic facors. The former causes social discontent while the latter transforms social discontent into political protest. In communist countries, the catalytic factors are either protest activities planned by specific dissident groups or “nonpolitical incidents.”Once the Communist Party fails to respond to non-political incidents appropriately, these incidents will trigger popular uprisings under the conditions of lack of resources, leadership, and organizational strength . The author then derives the strategies the Communist Party may take to prevent popular uprisings:(1)paralyzing all autonomous social groups , and (2)skillfully responding to all non-political incidents which may cause mass gatherings and then preventing them from turning into political demonstrations.