統獨議題與台灣選民的投票行為：一九九○年代的分析

Abstract

本研究的主要目的是要檢視統獨議題在一九九○年代如何經由選舉影響台灣政治。為了達到此一目的，本研究處理三個主要研究問題：第一，統獨議題是如何在台灣政治舞台上出現與演進；第二，選民的統獨立場如何影響其投票抉擇；同時，跨不同的選舉是否有不同；第三，選民的統獨立場是受到哪些因素的影響，以及如何影響。本研究檢視一九九○年代的五次選舉：包括一九九四年的省市長選舉、一九九五與一九九八年的立委選舉、與一九九六與二○○○年的總統選舉。主要研究資料係政大選舉研究中心於選後所作的面訪資料。

The purpose of this research is to examine how the issue Taiwan independence versus unification with the Mainland (hereinafter the TI-UM issue) affects Taiwan`s politics through elections in the 1990s. To achieve this purpose, this article deals with three major issues. The first is to show how the TI-UM issue emerges and evolves in Taiwan`s political arena. The second is to show how voters` position on the TI-UM issue affects their voting behavior, and how these effects differ across different elections. The third is to show what the determinants are and how the determinants affect voters` position on the TI-UM issue. This research focuses on five elections across different periods of time. They are gubernatorial and mayoral elections in 1994, legislator`s elections in 1995 and 1998, and presidential elections in 1996 and 2000. The data used in this research are the post-election face-to-face interviews conducted by the Election Study Center in National Chengchi University.