策略性互動、貿易政策與市場條件對直接外人投資的影響：亞洲多國籍廠商直接投資美國本土製造業的實證分析

Abstract

本文以產業組織的觀點分別探討直接外人投資(DFI),進口與本國廠商之產量的決定要素,進而分析三者間市場占有率之替代關係,最後以亞洲多國籍廠商在1987到1990年間對美國20大製造業作實證分析。實證結果顯示當美國非關稅障礙提高,亞洲多國籍廠商出口運輸成本增加,產品差異性加深,與美元貶值時,亞洲多國籍廠商顯著地提高DFI,再者,DFI的固定成本增加時,亞洲多國籍廠商顯著地減少DFI,雖然美國市場擴大使DFI增加,但效果不顯著。最後實證結果也顯示\"躍過配額(quota-jumping)\"之DFI假說與Caves(1982)之產品差異性假說(product differentiation hypothesis)受到實證的支持,而\"躍過關稅(tariff-jumping)\"之DFI假說與Hymer(1960)和Knickerbocker (1973)之市場集中度(或壟斷力)假說(market concentration ratio hypothesis)則不被所實證支持。

The purpose of this paper is to explore theoretically and empirically the determinants of direct foreign investment (DFI) in U.S. manufacturing by Asian multinational firms (MNFs) between 1987 and 1990 using an industrial organization approach focusing on market structure and trade policy. The empirical results show that as U.S. nontariff barriers increase, transportation costs rise, product differentiation becomes larger, and U.S. currency depreciates, Asian MNFs significantly penetrate U.S. manufacturing market through DFI. However, higher fixed costs arising from DFI significantly discourages Asian MNFs to invest in U.S. manufacturing. Although higher U.S. market demand stimulates DFI by Asian MNFs, the effect is statistically insignificant. Finally, the empirical results support both \"quota-jumping\" DFI and Caves` (1982) product differentiation hypotheses, while \"tariff-jumping\" DFI, and Hymers` (1960) and Knicketbocker`s (1973) market concentration ratio (or monopoly power) hypotheses do not receive empirical evidence.