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Title: Prediction of Bird Flu A(H5N1) Outbreaks in Taiwan by Online Auction: Experimental Results
Authors: Chen,Shu-Heng;Wang,Sun-Chong;Tseng,Jie-Jun;Li,Sai-Ping
Keywords: avian influenza;futures exchange;market
Date: 2006
Issue Date: 2009-01-09 12:18:52 (UTC+8)
Abstract: The ability of accurate epidemic prediction facilitates early preparation for the disease and minimizes losses due to any strikes. We devised a platform on the Web for users to exchange their information / opinion on possible avian flu outbreaks in Taiwan. The likelihood of the first human infection of bird flu in Taiwan in, say, December 2005 is securitized in the form of a futures contract. Incentives are introduced via tournament: users trade the futures in the market on our Web server in order to win the awards in the end of the tournament. We ran such a tournament during the period between December 2005 and February 2006. Results of the futures’ prices correctly predicted no outbreaks of bird flu among the residents in Taiwan
during the 3-month period, suggesting that the design of the futures exchange on the Web be a useful tool of event forecasting.
Relation: New Mathematics and Natural Computation,2(3),271-279
Data Type: article
DOI 連結:
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