| Title: | Prediction of Bird Flu A(H5N1) Outbreaks in Taiwan by Online Auction: Experimental Results |
| Authors: | Chen,Shu-Heng;Wang,Sun-Chong;Tseng,Jie-Jun;Li,Sai-Ping |
| Keywords: | avian influenza;futures exchange;market |
| Date: | 2006 |
| Issue Date: | 2009-01-09 12:18:52 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | The ability of accurate epidemic prediction facilitates early preparation for the disease and minimizes losses due to any strikes. We devised a platform on the Web for users to exchange their information / opinion on possible avian flu outbreaks in Taiwan. The likelihood of the first human infection of bird flu in Taiwan in, say, December 2005 is securitized in the form of a futures contract. Incentives are introduced via tournament: users trade the futures in the market on our Web server in order to win the awards in the end of the tournament. We ran such a tournament during the period between December 2005 and February 2006. Results of the futures’ prices correctly predicted no outbreaks of bird flu among the residents in Taiwan
during the 3-month period, suggesting that the design of the futures exchange on the Web be a useful tool of event forecasting. |
| Relation: | New Mathematics and Natural Computation,2(3),271-279 |
| Data Type: | article |
| DOI 連結: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S1793005706000567 |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 期刊論文
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